Application of Stratospheric NAM Signal to Wintertime Climate Prediction

Jia Zhe; Wen Xinyu; Hu Yongyun; Guo Yanjun

Vol.25, NO.1, 2014

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Jia Zhe, Wen Xinyu, Hu Yongyun, et al. Application of stratospheric NAM signal to wintertime climate prediction. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2014, 25(1): 107-111.

Citation:

Jia Zhe, Wen Xinyu, Hu Yongyun, et al. Application of stratospheric NAM signal to wintertime climate prediction. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2014, 25(1): 107-111.

Jia Zhe, Wen Xinyu, Hu Yongyun, et al. Application of stratospheric NAM signal to wintertime climate prediction. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2014, 25(1): 107-111.

Citation:

Jia Zhe, Wen Xinyu, Hu Yongyun, et al. Application of stratospheric NAM signal to wintertime climate prediction. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2014, 25(1): 107-111.

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Application of Stratospheric NAM Signal to Wintertime Climate Prediction

1.
Laboratory for Climate and Atmosphere-Ocean Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871
2.
National Climate Center, Beijing 100081

Received Date: 2013-02-04
Rev Recd Date: 2013-06-08
Publish Date: 2014-01-31

Abstract

Abstract

Stratospheric circulations are of planetary scales and long periods. It is considered that signals of stratospheric circulation anomalies could be used to predict tropospheric weather and climate systems in wintertime, but few practice is reported so far. To evaluate whether stratospheric signals can be used in long-term weather prediction or short-term climate prediction in wintertime, four intra-seasonal climate prediction experiments are carried out in winters of 2011 and 2012, using the index of stratospheric northern annular mode (NAM). Among the four predictions, the second and the third predictions successfully captured the polarity of NAM and surface temperature tendency in North China, which are well verified by observations in following weeks. The second prediction is particularly successful. The results suggest that stratospheric NAM signals are indeed useful for improving prediction skills for long-range weather or short-term climate variability in winter.
- short-term climate prediction;
- stratosphere;
- NAM;
- long-range weather forecast

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References(20)

Figures and Tables

图 1 2011—2012年冬季4次预测发布当日NAM指数时间-高度剖面图和近地面AO指数时间序列

(a)2011年11月7日, (b)2012年1月11日, (c)2012年2月1日, (d)2012年2月27日

Fig. 1 Height-time cross-section of NAM indices and time series of the surface indices

(a)7 Nov 2011, (b)11 Jan 2012, (c)1 Feb 2012, (d)27 Feb 2012

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图 2 2011年9月1日—2012年4月1日NAM指数时间-高度剖面图及近地面AO指数时间序列

Fig. 2 Height-time cross-section of NAM indices and time series of the surface AO indices from 1 Sep 2011 to 1 Apr 2012

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图 3 2011—2012年冬季4个预测时间段北半球地表气温度距平 (a)2011年11月11日—12月31日，(b)2012年1月20日—2月20日，(c)2012年2月4日—3月4日，(d)2012年3月1日—4月1日

Fig. 3 Temperature anomalies during the period of 11 Nov—31 Dec in 2011(a), 20 Jan—20 Feb in 2012(b), 4 Feb—4 Mar in 2012(c) and 1 Mar—1 Apr in 2012(d)

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