Evaluation of BJ-RUC System for the Forecast Quality of Planetary Boundary Layer in Beijing Area

Liu Mengjuan; Chen Min

Vol.25, NO.2, 2014

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Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2014 > 25(2): 212-221

Liu Mengjuan, Chen Min. Evaluation of BJ-RUC system for the forecast quality of planetary boundary layer in Beijing area. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2014, 25(2): 212-221.

Citation:

Liu Mengjuan, Chen Min. Evaluation of BJ-RUC system for the forecast quality of planetary boundary layer in Beijing area. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2014, 25(2): 212-221.

Liu Mengjuan, Chen Min. Evaluation of BJ-RUC system for the forecast quality of planetary boundary layer in Beijing area. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2014, 25(2): 212-221.

Citation:

Liu Mengjuan, Chen Min. Evaluation of BJ-RUC system for the forecast quality of planetary boundary layer in Beijing area. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2014, 25(2): 212-221.

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Evaluation of BJ-RUC System for the Forecast Quality of Planetary Boundary Layer in Beijing Area

Liu Mengjuan¹,
Chen Min^{2
,
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1.
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, Peking University, Beijing 100871
2.
Institute of Urban Meteorology, CMA, Beijing 100089

Received Date: 2013-02-21
Rev Recd Date: 2014-01-20
Publish Date: 2014-03-31

Abstract

Abstract

The performance of analyses and forecasts from BJ-RUC (Beijing Rapid Updated Cycling Analysis and Forecast System) are evaluated against the operational L-band radiosonde observations at Beijing Weather Observatory sounding station at 0800 BT, 1400 BT and 2000 BT during the 2-month period of August 2010 and August 2011. From the results, it can be found that in Beijing Area, the detailed structure of the boundary layer revealed by the very high vertical resolution L-band radiosonde observations during the daytime, is generally well predicted by the model. However, systematical bias is also significantly identified. For the temperature profile, WRF model is capable of forecasting the thin layer with smaller temperature lapse rate below 400 m, while the whole boundary layer is forecasted with cold bias and warm bias at 1400 BT and 2000 BT for the boundary layer below 1 km. In addition, significant wet biases are also identified from the analyses and forecasts within the boundary layer. Overall, there are much larger systematical biases for forecasts within planetary boundary layer (PBL) than those in free atmosphere.According to the L-band radiosonde observations, the prevailing PBL mountain breeze at night usually transits into the valley breeze in the morning (around 0800 BT), there after the SSW wind will be dominant in PBL below 1500 m during the afternoon (from 1400 BT to 2000 BT) in Beijing Area. The WRF model accurately predicts such kind of diurnal feature of PBL circulation, but the wind speed in the morning is under-predicted while over-predicted in the afternoon. The forecast performance for height of PBL at 1400 BT is also verified against those derived from radiosonde data. The forecasted daily variation tendency of the height fits well with the observation during the evaluation period. But more or less, WRF model will over-predict the height under the circumstances of clear sky and light-mist, which could be partially ascribed to the feature of too strong vertical mixing in Yongsei University (YSU) PBL scheme utilized in the model.
- planetary boundary layer (PBL);
- L-band radiosonde;
- operational numerical weather forecast

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References(25)

Figures and Tables

图 1 北京市观象台2010年8月和2011年8月边界层内平均温度与分析场和预报场的平均偏差及均方根误差

Fig. 1 Vertical profiles of mean temperature, bias and root mean square error of analysis, 3-h forecast and 6-h forecast in boundary layer of Beijing Weather Observatory in August 2010 and August 2011

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 2 北京市观象台2010年8月和2011年8月边界层内平均比湿与分析场和预报场的平均偏差及均方根误差

Fig. 2 Vertical profiles of mean mixing ratio, bias and root mean square error of analysis, 3-h and 6-h forecast in boundary layer of Beijing Weather Observatory in August 2010 and August 2011

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 3 2010年8月与2011年8月北京市观象台08：00不同高度风玫瑰图

(图中扇形半径代表该风向所占百分比，圆心处为0；每圈代表 5%)

Fig. 3 Wind rose map between different levels of Beijing Weather Observatory at 0800 BT in August 2010 and August 2011

(the radius of sector indicates the percentage for each wind direction, starting from the center as 0; each circle indicates 5%)

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 4 同图 3，但为14:00

Fig. 4 The same as in Fig.3, but for 1400 BT

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 5 同图 3，但为20:00

Fig. 5 The same as in Fig.3, but for 2000 BT

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 6 北京市观象台在2010年8月与2011年8月14：00边界层高度变化

Fig. 6 Variation of boundary layer height of Beijing Weather Observatory at 1400 BT in August 2010 and August 2011

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 7 北京市观象台在2010年8月与2011年8月14：00晴空少云、多云、轻雾、降水情况下的平均虚位温垂直分布

Fig. 7 Vertical profiles of mean virtual potential temperature in boundary layer in sunny, cloudy, mist, rainy days of Beijing Weather Observatory at 1400 BT in August 2010 and August 2011

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

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