Chen Jiajin, Li Lichun, Lin Jing, et al. Integrated risk evaluation on meteorological disasters of loquat in Fujian Province. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2014, 25(2): 232-241.
Citation: Chen Jiajin, Li Lichun, Lin Jing, et al. Integrated risk evaluation on meteorological disasters of loquat in Fujian Province. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2014, 25(2): 232-241.

Integrated Risk Evaluation on Meteorological Disasters of Loquat in Fujian Province

  • Received Date: 2013-04-12
  • Rev Recd Date: 2014-01-21
  • Publish Date: 2014-03-31
  • In order to identify the risk of loquat growing on complicated terrain in Fujian Province, to avoid planting in high risk areas, integrated risk evaluation on meteorological disasters of loquat in Fujian Province is conducted using disaster risk analysis theory. A risk evaluation index system for meteorological disasters of loquat in Fujian Province is constructed, based on the identification of the major disaster-causing factors affecting loquat growth and yield, and from the analysis of the sensitivity and exposed property of loquat to meteorology disasters, and the disaster prevention and mitigation capability of loquat growing regions in the Province. In addition, the risk index of each evaluation unit is calculated based on the annual meteorological data, loquat planting areas and yield, and other socio-economic data in loquat growing region in Fujian Province, and by using the weight of risk indices determined by analytic hierarchy process method and entropy weight coefficient method. Therefore, an integrated risk evaluation model of meteorological disasters is established and a fine risk division map is drawn with GIS technique. The growing region is divided into four-risk-grade areas, including mild risk area, moderate risk area, severe risk area and severity risk area. The result shows that, from the aspect of risk factors composition for the meteorological disasters of loquat, potential hazard of the disaster-causing factors is the determinant factor influencing the synthetic risk, the vulnerability of the planting area takes the second place, and the damage prevention and mitigation capacity only plays an alleviative role. In the Province, loquat growth regions with severe and more severe integrated risk of meteorological disasters for planting loquat are mainly distributed in the mountain areas with mid-high elevation of the five major mountain ranges, and counties with large growing areas including Putian City, Fuqing City and Yunxiao County; the regions with light integrated risk are mainly in the coastal counties with low elevation in the middle south of the Province (except large planting counties and Dongshan County); and the regions with moderate integrated risk are distributed in the other areas of the Province. Based on the risk evaluation results combined with loquat damage examples in history, it could be verified that the risk evaluation and division results is consistent with the actual situation. The results could offer scientific basis for the adjustment and optimization of loquat planting distribution, and for reducing the integrated risk of loquat planting in Fujian Province.
  • Fig. 1  Index system of the integrated risk evaluation for loquat meteorological disasters

    Fig. 2  Division of the potential hazard (a), vulnerability (b), disaster coping capability (c) and synthetic risk (d) of loquat

    Table  1  Hazard level of disaster-causing factors

    致灾因子 危害等级
    轻度 中度 重度 严重
    花果越冬期极端最低气温td/℃ -3.0≤td < -2.0 -5.0≤td < -3.0 td < -5.0
    果实发育期日最大平均风速v/(m·s-1) 10.8 < v≤17.2 17.2 < v≤24.5 24.5 < v≤32.6 v > 32.6
    果实膨大期连旱日数dsd/d 16≤ dsd≤30 31≤ dsd≤45 46≤ dsd≤60 dsd > 61
    开花至幼果期连旱日数dad/d 31≤ dad≤50 51≤ dad≤70 71≤ dad≤90 dad≥91
    注:连旱日数是指日降水量不大于2 mm的连续日数;当果实膨大期、开花至幼果期日降水量不大于2 mm的连续日数分别达到16 d和31 d时开始出现干旱,并统计旱日;其后出现连续6 d降水量不小于30 mm (果实膨大期) 或不小于15 mm (开花至幼果期) 则解除旱情,终止旱日统计,若未达解除标准,持续统计连旱日数。
    DownLoad: Download CSV

    Table  2  Comprehensive weight of the risk evaluation index for loquat meteorological disasters

    二级指标 二级指标权重 三级指标 三级指标权重 四级指标 四级指标权重
    B1 0.6292 C1 0.5473 D1 0.0563
    D2 0.1733
    D3 0.7704
    C2 0.3456 D4 0.0314
    D5 0.1075
    D6 0.3560
    D7 0.5051
    C3 0.0897 D8 0.0136
    D9 0.0546
    D10 0.1644
    D11 0.7644
    C4 0.0174 D12 0.0705
    D13 0.2016
    D14 0.1584
    D15 0.5695
    B2 0.3573 C5 0.9159
    C6 0.0250
    C7 0.0165
    C8 0.0426
    B3 0.0135 C9 0.7157
    C10 0.1493
    C11 0.1350
    DownLoad: Download CSV

    Table  3  Normalized difference index of the synthetic risk evaluation for loquat meteorological disasters

    评估单元 危险性 脆弱性 防灾减灾能力 综合风险
    光泽 0.7505 0.0660 0.1885 0.7653
    邵武 0.3661 0.0587 0.2068 0.3852
    武夷山 0.2851 0.0590 0.1212 0.3081
    浦城 0.4148 0.0610 0.1889 0.4344
    建阳 0.2980 0.0591 0.1680 0.3197
    松溪 0.2734 0.0537 0.1672 0.2926
    政和 0.1167 0.0662 0.0537 0.1491
    建瓯 0.1752 0.0687 0.2070 0.2044
    寿宁 1.0000 0.0467 0.0978 1.0000
    周宁 0.5299 0.0359 0.0245 0.5360
    福安 0.0418 0.0818 0.4236 0.0769
    福鼎 0.0560 0.0520 0.5160 0.0717
    宁化 0.5109 0.0561 0.1002 0.5274
    清流 0.3602 0.0543 0.1785 0.3774
    泰宁 0.6805 0.0539 0.1608 0.6906
    将乐 0.1188 0.0507 0.1799 0.1396
    顺昌 0.1349 0.0554 0.1892 0.1578
    明溪 0.3976 0.0398 0.1154 0.4070
    沙县 0.0890 0.0619 0.2366 0.1156
    三明 0.0454 0.0576 0.1920 0.0716
    南平辖区 0.0334 0.0673 0.1798 0.0656
    古田 0.0982 0.0423 0.3728 0.1105
    尤溪 0.1619 0.0690 0.1788 0.1921
    闽清 0.0338 0.0467 0.4411 0.0486
    霞浦 0.0415 0.0914 0.5554 0.0794
    闽侯 0.0263 0.0733 0.6468 0.0522
    罗源 0.0336 0.0667 0.5259 0.0581
    宁德辖区 0.0026 0.0697 0.6289 0.0273
    福州辖区 0.0348 0.0624 0.9967 0.0467
    连江 0.0170 0.0810 0.5382 0.0498
    长汀 0.1845 0.0591 0.0780 0.2108
    连城 0.0716 0.0490 0.1384 0.0933
    武平 0.0771 0.0478 0.1353 0.0981
    上杭 0.0348 0.0546 0.1186 0.0610
    永安 0.0783 0.0558 0.1976 0.1025
    大田 0.1022 0.0724 0.1174 0.1371
    漳平 0.0557 0.0387 0.1866 0.0708
    龙岩 0.0275 0.0536 0.2737 0.0500
    华安 0.0558 0.0536 0.9458 0.0632
    安溪 0.0286 0.0462 0.6393 0.0390
    永泰 0.0317 0.0915 0.8950 0.0626
    永春 0.0510 0.1261 0.5445 0.1088
    德化 0.1149 0.0492 1.0000 0.1173
    仙游 0.0693 0.3427 0.4565 0.2529
    长乐 0.0276 0.0480 0.4112 0.0439
    福清 0.0586 0.2805 0.4701 0.2065
    莆田 0.0533 1.0000 0.3927 0.6160
    永定 0.0591 0.0465 0.1845 0.0787
    长泰 0.0662 0.0549 0.4760 0.0842
    南靖 0.6492 0.0609 0.5266 0.6563
    平和 0.0885 0.0599 0.5299 0.1077
    漳州辖区 0.0998 0.0495 0.2706 0.1183
    漳浦 0.1246 0.0597 0.4788 0.1440
    南安 0.0647 0.0659 0.4706 0.0892
    惠安 0.1251 0.0591 0.3829 0.1462
    厦门 0.1291 0.0556 0.4252 0.1472
    晋江 0.0888 0.0639 0.4705 0.1116
    诏安 0.1366 0.0785 0.4081 0.1680
    东山 0.3097 0.0553 0.3681 0.3247
    云霄 0.1239 0.3628 0.5544 0.3156
    DownLoad: Download CSV

    Table  4  Geographical calculation models of the risk evaluation for disaster-causing factors

    评价指标 地理推算模型 复相关系数 检验值
    C1 Ifi=-0.352+2.21×10-7x+5.46×10-8y+4.94×10-4h+5.96×10-7l 0.85 36.78*
    C3 Isdi=1.382-1.34×10-6x-5.74×10-8y-1.06×10-4h-2.46×10-6l 0.80 28.00*
    C4 Iadi=5.395+1.29×10-6x-2.04×10-6y-1.84×10-4h+1.53×10-6l 0.85 36.78*
    注:*表示达到0.01显著性水平。
    DownLoad: Download CSV

    Table  5  Integrated risk evaluation models of loquat meteorological disasters

    评价指标 评估模型
    B1 Ih=0.5473Ifi+0.3456Iwi+0.0897Isdi+0.0174Iadi
    B2 Iv=0.9159Ipr+0.025Irr+0.0165Ivi+0.0426Icp
    B3 Ic=0.7157Isr+0.1493Iir+0.1350Ife
    A I=0.6292Ih +0.3573Iv-0.0135Ic
    DownLoad: Download CSV

    Table  6  Grading standard of the risk

    指标 风险等级
    轻度 中度 重度 严重
    B1 0≤Ih<0.10 0.10≤Ih<0.30 0.30≤Ih<0.50 0.50≤Ih≤1.00
    B2 0≤Iv<0.10 0.10≤Iv<0.30 0.30≤Iv<0.50 0.50≤Iv≤1.00
    B3 0≤Ic<0.35 0.35≤Ic<0.70 0.70≤Ic≤1.00
    A 0≤I<0.10 0.10≤I<0.30 0.30≤I<0.50 0.50≤I≤1.00
    DownLoad: Download CSV

    Table  7  Minimum temperature retrieval and freezing injury risk indexes of loquat in parts of Hanjiang Region

    时间 地点 海拔/m 枇杷冻害调查总体评价 园地百叶箱极端最低气温反演/℃ 露天极端最低温度反演/℃ 冻害危险性指数
    2005-01-01 大洋乡 350 重度冻害 -0.8 -3.1 0.32
    2005-01-01 庄边镇 320 中度至重度冻害 -0.6 -2.9 0.27
    2005-01-01 新县镇 250 中度冻害 -0.1 -2.4 0.24
    DownLoad: Download CSV
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    • Received : 2013-04-12
    • Accepted : 2014-01-21
    • Published : 2014-03-31

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