Integrated Risk Evaluation on Meteorological Disasters of Loquat in Fujian Province

Chen Jiajin; Li Lichun; Lin Jing; Wang Jiayi; Zheng Dongqi; Huang Chuanrong

Vol.25, NO.2, 2014

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2014 > 25(2): 232-241

Chen Jiajin, Li Lichun, Lin Jing, et al. Integrated risk evaluation on meteorological disasters of loquat in Fujian Province. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2014, 25(2): 232-241.

Citation:

Chen Jiajin, Li Lichun, Lin Jing, et al. Integrated risk evaluation on meteorological disasters of loquat in Fujian Province. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2014, 25(2): 232-241.

Chen Jiajin, Li Lichun, Lin Jing, et al. Integrated risk evaluation on meteorological disasters of loquat in Fujian Province. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2014, 25(2): 232-241.

Citation:

Chen Jiajin, Li Lichun, Lin Jing, et al. Integrated risk evaluation on meteorological disasters of loquat in Fujian Province. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2014, 25(2): 232-241.

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Integrated Risk Evaluation on Meteorological Disasters of Loquat in Fujian Province

1.
Fujian Institute of Meteorological Science, Fuzhou 350001
2.
Fuzhou Meteorological Bureau of Fujian Province, Fuzhou 350014

Received Date: 2013-04-12
Rev Recd Date: 2014-01-21
Publish Date: 2014-03-31

Abstract

Abstract

In order to identify the risk of loquat growing on complicated terrain in Fujian Province, to avoid planting in high risk areas, integrated risk evaluation on meteorological disasters of loquat in Fujian Province is conducted using disaster risk analysis theory. A risk evaluation index system for meteorological disasters of loquat in Fujian Province is constructed, based on the identification of the major disaster-causing factors affecting loquat growth and yield, and from the analysis of the sensitivity and exposed property of loquat to meteorology disasters, and the disaster prevention and mitigation capability of loquat growing regions in the Province. In addition, the risk index of each evaluation unit is calculated based on the annual meteorological data, loquat planting areas and yield, and other socio-economic data in loquat growing region in Fujian Province, and by using the weight of risk indices determined by analytic hierarchy process method and entropy weight coefficient method. Therefore, an integrated risk evaluation model of meteorological disasters is established and a fine risk division map is drawn with GIS technique. The growing region is divided into four-risk-grade areas, including mild risk area, moderate risk area, severe risk area and severity risk area. The result shows that, from the aspect of risk factors composition for the meteorological disasters of loquat, potential hazard of the disaster-causing factors is the determinant factor influencing the synthetic risk, the vulnerability of the planting area takes the second place, and the damage prevention and mitigation capacity only plays an alleviative role. In the Province, loquat growth regions with severe and more severe integrated risk of meteorological disasters for planting loquat are mainly distributed in the mountain areas with mid-high elevation of the five major mountain ranges, and counties with large growing areas including Putian City, Fuqing City and Yunxiao County; the regions with light integrated risk are mainly in the coastal counties with low elevation in the middle south of the Province (except large planting counties and Dongshan County); and the regions with moderate integrated risk are distributed in the other areas of the Province. Based on the risk evaluation results combined with loquat damage examples in history, it could be verified that the risk evaluation and division results is consistent with the actual situation. The results could offer scientific basis for the adjustment and optimization of loquat planting distribution, and for reducing the integrated risk of loquat planting in Fujian Province.
- loquat;
- meteorological disasters;
- risk evaluation

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References(36)

Figures and Tables

Fig. 1 Index system of the integrated risk evaluation for loquat meteorological disasters

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Fig. 2 Division of the potential hazard (a), vulnerability (b), disaster coping capability (c) and synthetic risk (d) of loquat

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Table 1 Hazard level of disaster-causing factors

致灾因子	危害等级
致灾因子	轻度	中度	重度	严重
花果越冬期极端最低气温td/℃	-3.0≤td < -2.0	-5.0≤td < -3.0	td < -5.0
果实发育期日最大平均风速v/(m·s^-1)	10.8 < v≤17.2	17.2 < v≤24.5	24.5 < v≤32.6	v > 32.6
果实膨大期连旱日数d_sd/d	16≤ d_sd≤30	31≤ d_sd≤45	46≤ d_sd≤60	d_sd > 61
开花至幼果期连旱日数d_ad/d	31≤ d_ad≤50	51≤ d_ad≤70	71≤ d_ad≤90	d_ad≥91
注：连旱日数是指日降水量不大于2 mm的连续日数；当果实膨大期、开花至幼果期日降水量不大于2 mm的连续日数分别达到16 d和31 d时开始出现干旱，并统计旱日；其后出现连续6 d降水量不小于30 mm (果实膨大期) 或不小于15 mm (开花至幼果期) 则解除旱情，终止旱日统计，若未达解除标准，持续统计连旱日数。

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Table 2 Comprehensive weight of the risk evaluation index for loquat meteorological disasters

二级指标	二级指标权重	三级指标	三级指标权重	四级指标	四级指标权重
B1	0.6292	C1	0.5473	D1	0.0563
				D2	0.1733
				D3	0.7704
		C2	0.3456	D4	0.0314
				D5	0.1075
				D6	0.3560
				D7	0.5051
		C3	0.0897	D8	0.0136
				D9	0.0546
				D10	0.1644
				D11	0.7644
		C4	0.0174	D12	0.0705
				D13	0.2016
				D14	0.1584
				D15	0.5695
B2	0.3573	C5	0.9159
		C6	0.0250
		C7	0.0165
		C8	0.0426
B3	0.0135	C9	0.7157
		C10	0.1493
		C11	0.1350

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Table 3 Normalized difference index of the synthetic risk evaluation for loquat meteorological disasters

评估单元	危险性	脆弱性	防灾减灾能力	综合风险
光泽	0.7505	0.0660	0.1885	0.7653
邵武	0.3661	0.0587	0.2068	0.3852
武夷山	0.2851	0.0590	0.1212	0.3081
浦城	0.4148	0.0610	0.1889	0.4344
建阳	0.2980	0.0591	0.1680	0.3197
松溪	0.2734	0.0537	0.1672	0.2926
政和	0.1167	0.0662	0.0537	0.1491
建瓯	0.1752	0.0687	0.2070	0.2044
寿宁	1.0000	0.0467	0.0978	1.0000
周宁	0.5299	0.0359	0.0245	0.5360
福安	0.0418	0.0818	0.4236	0.0769
福鼎	0.0560	0.0520	0.5160	0.0717
宁化	0.5109	0.0561	0.1002	0.5274
清流	0.3602	0.0543	0.1785	0.3774
泰宁	0.6805	0.0539	0.1608	0.6906
将乐	0.1188	0.0507	0.1799	0.1396
顺昌	0.1349	0.0554	0.1892	0.1578
明溪	0.3976	0.0398	0.1154	0.4070
沙县	0.0890	0.0619	0.2366	0.1156
三明	0.0454	0.0576	0.1920	0.0716
南平辖区	0.0334	0.0673	0.1798	0.0656
古田	0.0982	0.0423	0.3728	0.1105
尤溪	0.1619	0.0690	0.1788	0.1921
闽清	0.0338	0.0467	0.4411	0.0486
霞浦	0.0415	0.0914	0.5554	0.0794
闽侯	0.0263	0.0733	0.6468	0.0522
罗源	0.0336	0.0667	0.5259	0.0581
宁德辖区	0.0026	0.0697	0.6289	0.0273
福州辖区	0.0348	0.0624	0.9967	0.0467
连江	0.0170	0.0810	0.5382	0.0498
长汀	0.1845	0.0591	0.0780	0.2108
连城	0.0716	0.0490	0.1384	0.0933
武平	0.0771	0.0478	0.1353	0.0981
上杭	0.0348	0.0546	0.1186	0.0610
永安	0.0783	0.0558	0.1976	0.1025
大田	0.1022	0.0724	0.1174	0.1371
漳平	0.0557	0.0387	0.1866	0.0708
龙岩	0.0275	0.0536	0.2737	0.0500
华安	0.0558	0.0536	0.9458	0.0632
安溪	0.0286	0.0462	0.6393	0.0390
永泰	0.0317	0.0915	0.8950	0.0626
永春	0.0510	0.1261	0.5445	0.1088
德化	0.1149	0.0492	1.0000	0.1173
仙游	0.0693	0.3427	0.4565	0.2529
长乐	0.0276	0.0480	0.4112	0.0439
福清	0.0586	0.2805	0.4701	0.2065
莆田	0.0533	1.0000	0.3927	0.6160
永定	0.0591	0.0465	0.1845	0.0787
长泰	0.0662	0.0549	0.4760	0.0842
南靖	0.6492	0.0609	0.5266	0.6563
平和	0.0885	0.0599	0.5299	0.1077
漳州辖区	0.0998	0.0495	0.2706	0.1183
漳浦	0.1246	0.0597	0.4788	0.1440
南安	0.0647	0.0659	0.4706	0.0892
惠安	0.1251	0.0591	0.3829	0.1462
厦门	0.1291	0.0556	0.4252	0.1472
晋江	0.0888	0.0639	0.4705	0.1116
诏安	0.1366	0.0785	0.4081	0.1680
东山	0.3097	0.0553	0.3681	0.3247
云霄	0.1239	0.3628	0.5544	0.3156

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Table 4 Geographical calculation models of the risk evaluation for disaster-causing factors

评价指标	地理推算模型	复相关系数	检验值
C1	I_fi=-0.352+2.21×10^-7x+5.46×10^-8y+4.94×10^-4h+5.96×10^-7l	0.85	36.78^*
C3	I_sdi=1.382-1.34×10^-6x-5.74×10^-8y-1.06×10^-4h-2.46×10^-6l	0.80	28.00^*
C4	I_adi=5.395+1.29×10^-6x-2.04×10^-6y-1.84×10^-4h+1.53×10^-6l	0.85	36.78^*
注：*表示达到0.01显著性水平。

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Table 5 Integrated risk evaluation models of loquat meteorological disasters

评价指标	评估模型
B1	I_h=0.5473I_fi+0.3456I_wi+0.0897I_sdi+0.0174I_adi
B2	I_v=0.9159I_pr+0.025I_rr+0.0165I_vi+0.0426I_cp
B3	I_c=0.7157I_sr+0.1493I_ir+0.1350I_fe
A	I=0.6292I_h +0.3573I_v-0.0135I_c

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Table 6 Grading standard of the risk

指标	风险等级
指标	轻度	中度	重度	严重
B1	0≤I_h＜0.10	0.10≤I_h＜0.30	0.30≤I_h＜0.50	0.50≤I_h≤1.00
B2	0≤I_v＜0.10	0.10≤I_v＜0.30	0.30≤I_v＜0.50	0.50≤I_v≤1.00
B3	0≤I_c＜0.35	0.35≤I_c＜0.70	0.70≤I_c≤1.00
A	0≤I＜0.10	0.10≤I＜0.30	0.30≤I＜0.50	0.50≤I≤1.00

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Table 7 Minimum temperature retrieval and freezing injury risk indexes of loquat in parts of Hanjiang Region

时间	地点	海拔/m	枇杷冻害调查总体评价	园地百叶箱极端最低气温反演/℃	露天极端最低温度反演/℃	冻害危险性指数
2005-01-01	大洋乡	350	重度冻害	-0.8	-3.1	0.32
2005-01-01	庄边镇	320	中度至重度冻害	-0.6	-2.9	0.27
2005-01-01	新县镇	250	中度冻害	-0.1	-2.4	0.24

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