基于多源数据的爆发性气旋海上大风分布特征

Characteristics of Near-surface Strong Winds Associated with Explosive Cyclones over Oceans Based on Multi-source Data Fusion

  • 摘要: 基于多重网格变分同化方法,通过融合多源卫星反演洋面风和全球浮标观测洋面风数据,研究2019—2023年北半球中纬度太平洋和大西洋海上爆发性气旋伴随的洋面大风统计特征。通过与欧洲中期天气预报中心大气再分析数据、多平台交叉校正洋面风场产品等洋面风数据对比发现,多源数据融合形成的洋面风格点融合数据集(Merged Sea Wind Dataset,MERG)表征北半球中纬度爆发性气旋的洋面风场优势显著:由于使用更精细的网格和多尺度分析方法,MERG显示气旋伴随洋面大风的空间分布(特别是在边缘海和沿岸海域)更加准确和精细;MERG能捕获更剧烈的气旋洋面风速以及风速变化(气旋洋面风速最大可达55.71 m·s-1,最大6 h增幅可达11.58 m·s-1);在气旋发展后期,MERG能更好地分析冷输送带引发的洋面大风,大风覆盖范围和强度显著大于其他洋面风数据的分析结果。

     

    Abstract: To investigate characteristics of near-surface winds associated with explosive cyclones (ECs) over the mid-latitude oceans of the Northern Hemisphere, a multiscale data assimilation framework by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is adopted, and a high-resolution sea surface wind dataset produced by Space-time Multigrid Analysis System (STMAS) during the period from 2019 to 2023 is utilized. This dataset integrates multi-source satellite-derived sea surface wind speed data with in-situ observations, such as those collected from oceanic buoys, thereby providing a more complete and accurate representation of wind conditions over the ocean surface. To evaluate the performance and advantages of this merged dataset (MERG), comprehensive comparisons are conducted with other widely used sea surface wind products, including the atmospheric reanalysis dataset from European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Cross-calibrated Multi-platform (CCMP) ocean wind product, which are both frequently used in operational forecasting and climate research.
    Results show that MERG outperforms these datasets in several key aspects related to EC-associated wind structures. First, due to its finer spatial resolution and advanced multiscale analysis capabilities, MERG is able to resolve more realistic and detailed spatial distributions of EC-induced near-surface strong winds, especially in complex regions such as marginal and coastal seas, where small-scale features are often underrepresented or even missed in coarser-resolution datasets. Second, MERG captures more extreme wind speeds and more rapid temporal changes with greater accuracy. Specifically, the maximum near-surface wind speed associated with ECs reaches 55.71 m·s-1, and the largest observed 6-h wind speed change exceeds 11.58 m·s-1, both of which highlight the system’s ability to effectively track fast-evolving hazardous wind events. Third, during mature and decaying stages of cyclone development, MERG demonstrates a superior capability in depicting strong winds driven by cold conveyor belts (CCBs), showing significantly greater spatial extent and intensity than those captured by the other datasets examined.
    These advantages collectively suggest that MERG dataset provides a more accurate, high-resolution, and comprehensive characterization of EC-induced surface wind structures, and therefore holds great potential for improving our scientific understanding of hazardous marine wind events and enhancing early warning and disaster preparedness systems for oceanic storms.

     

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