ERA5计算的北京夏季对流参数与探空资料对比

Comparison of Summer Convective Parameters Calculated from ERA5 Reanalysis Data and Soundings in Beijing

  • 摘要: 为评估ERA5再分析资料在北京夏季强对流天气中的适用性,利用2009—2023年6—8月ERA5再分析资料和北京市观象台14:00(北京时)加密探空资料及台站观测资料计算对流参数,对比二者表征的对流热力、水汽、风切变和特性层厚度等特征的差异。结果表明:ERA5再分析资料对对流层中低层各层温度、抬升指数表征性能较好,对抬升凝结高度的表征不稳定,ERA5再分析资料高估大多数不超过2000 J·kg-1的对流有效位能,但明显低估大于2000 J·kg-1的对流有效位能。ERA5再分析资料能较好描述地面到对流层中层(0~6 km和0~8 km)的垂直风切变,但低估地面到低层(0~1 km和0~3 km)的垂直风切变。ERA5再分析资料对地面和对流层低层露点描述较为准确,但对对流层中层水汽和整层水汽含量估计偏大。在与冰雹相关的特性层高度厚度上,ERA5再分析资料与探空资料非常接近。3次典型强对流过程的分析表明:基于ERA5再分析资料的对流参数高估强降水发生概率,低估雷暴大风发生概率;ERA5再分析资料对0~1 km垂直风切变的估计极不可靠,导致其很难准确估计强龙卷潜势。

     

    Abstract: To evaluate the applicability of ERA5 reanalysis data in severe convective weather in Beijing during summer, ERA5 reanalysis data and soundings of Beijing at 1400 BT from June to August during 2009-2023 are used to calculate convection parameters. Differences in convective thermal parameters, water vapor, wind shear, and characteristic layer thickness between ERA5 dataset and soundings are analyzed. Results indicate that ERA5 performs well in characterizing temperature of each vertical layer, the lift index, and the lifting condensation level. However, ERA5 frequently exhibits significant deviations in convective available potential energy estimation. Most of the low and middle convective available potential energy values are overestimated, but the high convective available potential energy values above 2000 J·kg-1 are significantly underestimated. The error in ERA5’s overestimating the medium and low convective effective potential energy values primarily stems from the overestimation of the ground temperature. The underestimation of high and convective effective potential energy values is primarily attributed to the underestimation of elevated ground dew point values. ERA5 can well describe the vertical wind shear from surface to middle troposphere (0-6 km and 0-8 km). However, there are obvious deviations in its representation of the vertical wind shear from surface to the lower troposphere (0-1 km and 0-3 km). It is more accurate in describing the dew point of lower layer, but the estimation of the water vapor condition of middle troposphere and the entire layer is excessively high (wet), resulting in a significantly lower estimate of downdraft convective available potential energy. Estimation for hail-related characteristic layer height and thickness of ERA5 is close to soundings. The analysis of three typical severe convection processes in Beijing during summer indicates that ERA5 data overestimate the water vapor conditions in both the entire layer and the middle layer. It also overestimates values of low and middle convective available potential energy, underestimating values of high convective available potential energy. However, the vertical wind shear, the characteristic layer height and thickness, are found to be in agreement with observations. The estimation increases the probability of heavy precipitation but decreases the probability of thunderstorm winds. It is challenging to provide a reliable estimate of the tornado activity based on ERA5 data, as its estimation of 0-1 km vertical wind shear exhibits significant deviations. Error sources of thermodynamic parameters are determined by the temperature profile and the dew point profile. The accuracy of the temperature profile is significantly better than that of the vertical profile of dew point temperature.

     

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