中国农业气象业务系统(CAgMSS3.0)建设与应用

Development and Application of China Agricultural Meteorological Service System (CAgMSS3.0)

  • 摘要: 为提升国家级农业气象业务应用能力, 在中国农业气象业务系统(China Agricultural Meteorological Service System, CAgMSS)2.0的基础上, 基于气象大数据云平台(天擎)开发中国农业气象业务系统3.0。CAgMSS3.0以B/S架构, 采用代理微服务设计模式、Kudu分布式数据管理和地理信息系统(Geographic Information System, GIS)引擎技术, 按照数据、算法、产品、用户4步业务流程, 将系统架构分为数据层、基础层、应用层和用户层, 基本实现数据和算法云化。较CAgMSS2.0, 新增作物气象适宜指数、农业气候年景评估和预测、光学与微波遥感全天候苗情监测分析、农业气象灾害指数库、农业气象灾害格点监测预报等模块, 改进基于机器学习和多源数据融合的土壤墒情监测评估、农业病虫害发生发展气象等级预报、国省互动的农用天气预报和农业气候种植与农业气象灾害风险区划等技术。CAgMSS3.0应用以来显著提升了国家级农业气象服务水平。未来将在天气业务一体化平台框架下集成农业气象服务系统, 发展基于“AI+机理模型”的作物生长模拟大模型和农业气象智能服务大模型。

     

    Abstract: Extreme meteorological disasters such as droughts, floods, heat stress, and low-temperature frost damage are increasing in frequency, spatial extent and severity in the context of global climate change. Additionally, shifts in modern agricultural production systems and the emergence of new technologies such as artificial intelligence and big data present novel opportunities for the development of agricultural meteorological services. Convenient and accurate agricultural meteorological services can provide critical support for safeguarding food security and enhancing disaster prevention and mitigation efforts. To further enhance the application capability of national agricultural meteorological services, the new version of China Agricultural Meteorological Service System (CAgMSS3.0) is under development based on the existing CAgMSS2.0 framework and is integrated with Meteorological Big Data Cloud Platform (Tianqing) of China Meteorological Administration. CAgMSS3.0 utilizes Tianqing cloud servers for the deployment of its basic data and algorithms. Compared with CAgMSS2.0, several new modules are introduced, such as crop meteorological suitability index, annual agroclimatic evaluation and prediction, all-weather crop growth condition monitoring and analysis via optical and microwave remote sensing, agricultural meteorological disaster index, and grid-based agricultural meteorological disaster monitoring and prediction. Furthermore, CAgMSS3.0 has improved soil moisture monitoring and evaluation by integrating machine learning with multi-source data fusion. It also incorporates advanced meteorological forecasting technology for the occurrence and development of agricultural pest and disease, an interactive national-provincial agricultural weather prediction framework, and refined methods for agricultural climate zoning as well as agricultural meteorological disaster risk zoning. This system significantly enhances the operational capacity of national agricultural meteorological services through its application. Nevertheless, CAgMSS3.0 has some limitations. First, functional modules currently lack integration of global agricultural meteorological monitoring and forecasting components. Second, emerging domains such as climate quality monitoring and forecasting for agricultural products, as well as agricultural meteorological financial and insurance services require further development in the system. Third, the application of cutting-edge technology, especially AI-driven decision support in agricultural meteorology, remains undeveloped. Future iterations of agricultural meteorological service system are expected to be incorporated into a new-generation weather business integration platform structured around an "intelligent core". Meanwhile, a large-scale model based on "AI + mechanism model" will be developed for crop growth simulation and intelligent agricultural meteorological services. These improvements are anticipated to facilitate more efficient, accurate, and intelligent agricultural meteorological services.

     

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