我国南方低温雨雪冰冻复合灾害识别评估方法

Identification and Risk Assessment of Compound Low-temperature Precipitation and Freezing Disasters in Southern China

  • 摘要: 利用1961—2024年冬半年我国南方15省1273个气象站最新观测数据,基于低温雨雪冰冻事件时空连续性,建立低温雨雪冰冻复合灾害新的客观识别技术方法,对灾害过程进行动态识别与危险性评估。结果表明:我国南方低温雨雪冰冻复合灾害过程的频次和危险性均呈中部高、南北低的空间分布特征,湖南、贵州、江西和湖北发生频次较多,危险性较高,灾害过程高频发生区存在向东北方向移动的趋势。时间上,低温雨雪冰冻复合灾害频次和综合危险性呈增大-减小-增大的长期变化特征,1月最为频繁。近年低温雨雪冰冻复合灾害最早开始时间和最晚结束时间均有提前的趋势,综合危险性和各致灾因子(频次、持续时间、影响范围、低温过程和降水强度)均呈增大趋势。

     

    Abstract: Under the background of climate change, the frequency and intensity of extreme low-temperature events show an increasing trend. Low-temperature precipitation and freezing is a compound disaster characterized by the co-occurrence of cold air and precipitation, leading to more severe impacts than individual hazards. Therefore, accurate identification and assessment of such compound disasters are essential for disaster prevention and mitigation. An objective identification method for compound low-temperature precipitation and freezing disasters in southern China is developed, utilizing the latest observations from 1273 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2024, including daily minimum temperature and precipitation. The methodology is based on the spatiotemporal continuity of compound low-temperature precipitation and freezing disasters, employing a three-tier framework: Single-station detection using temperature and precipitation thresholds, regional aggregation with a 200-km neighborhood radius and 5% impacted area threshold, and process tracking with a minimum duration of 3 d. A comprehensive hazard assessment model is established, which incorporates key indicators including event duration, impacted area, minimum temperature, temperature drop amplitude, and precipitation. The entropy weight method is applied to determine objective weights for each factor. The hazard assessment framework includes comprehensive hazard index and spatial hazard levels, with the former characterizing the overall regional disaster features and the latter depicting the disaster impacts at individual stations. Applying the identification framework, 112 compound low-temperature precipitation and freezing disasters are identified in southern China for the period of 1961-2024. Identified events exhibit strong spatial consistency with actual freezing-rain occurrences. Particularly noteworthy, close correspondence is found between the top 10 events ranked by hazard index and historically documented catastrophic freezing disasters. Results reveal distinct spatiotemporal patterns of compound low-temperature precipitation and freezing disasters in southern China. Spatially, compound low-temperature precipitation and freezing disasters in southern China exhibit a zonal distribution pattern, characterized by higher frequency and hazard in the central region (Hunan, Guizhou, Jiangxi, and Hubei) but lower values in the northern and southern areas. Notably, the high-frequency zone shows a northeastward migration trend. Temporally, January emerges as the peak month, accounting for 41% of total frequency, while both the earliest onset and latest termination dates have advanced significantly. The annual frequency has increased to 1.2 times the baseline in recent 30 years. The hazard index demonstrates a phased variation: An initial increase followed by a decline and a recent resurgence. In recent years, both the hazard index and individual hazard factors (e.g., frequency, duration, impacted area and temperature drop) have demonstrated an upward trend. Three typical events occurring in January 2008, January 2023, and February 2024 are analyzed in detail. All have significant impacts on southern China, yet exhibited distinct differences in intensity, duration, spatial distribution, and disaster-causing mechanisms.

     

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