多模式集合对我国夏季降水的预测能力

Predictive Skill of Multi-model Ensemble for Summer Precipitation in China

  • 摘要: 夏季降水预测是我国气候预测业务和服务的重中之重,动力气候模式是实时业务的重要工具,评估其性能对理解模式预测能力及未来发展至关重要。基于1993—2024年多个动力模式回报与预报数据、实况及再分析数据,系统评估了多模式集合平均对我国夏季降水及关键环流和海温场的预测能力。多模式集合平均对我国夏季降水的预测技巧具有显著时空差异和年际变率。不同超前时间的预测准确率均大于60分,超前0个月时预测技巧最高。其中长江中下游、华北和西北西部预测技巧较高,东北和西南地区明显偏低。对夏季西北太平洋环流的预测技巧比较稳定,不同超前时间的时间距平相关系数均在0.65以上,但中纬度环流技巧随时效延长迅速下降,这体现了初值的重要性。各模式对海温场的预测技巧总体较高,大部分区域时间距平相关系数均超过0.5,但多模式集合平均存在更大优势,可减弱春季预测障碍的影响。以业务预报技巧最高的长江中下游作为代表,分析最优单一模式对降水异常年的预测能力,仍无法再现个别年份的降水异常特征,需要进一步挖掘多模式的概率预报技巧,改进模式误差订正方法。

     

    Abstract: Accurate seasonal forecasting of summer precipitation is critical for climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction in China, yet remains challenging due to the variability of the East Asian summer monsoon. Dynamical climate models serve as the foundation for operational seasonal prediction but are constrained by systematic biases and uncertainties in initial conditions. To address this challenge, the prediction skill of a multi-model ensemble (MME) comprising advanced seasonal forecast systems is evaluated for summer (June-August) precipitation and key ocean-atmosphere precursor signals over China during 1993-2024. The analysis utilizes hindcasting data from eight seasonal prediction models. To ensure temporal consistency, an equally weighted multi-model ensemble mean (MME-mean) is constructed from seven models (excluding the shorter-record BCC-CPSv3, which is assessed separately). The verification is based on gridded observational datasets (CN05.1, GPCP), ERA5 reanalysis data, and HadISST sea surface temperature. Evaluation is conducted using standard metrics, including temporal correlation coefficient, anomaly correlation coefficient, and prediction score.Results reveal substantial spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the MME-mean skill for summer precipitation prediction. Predictive skill exhibits significant interannual variability, with higher skill found over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze, North China, and western Northwest China. In contrast, prediction skill is markedly lower over Northeast and Southwest China. Forecasts initialized closest to the target season (0-month lead) generally show the highest skill, underscoring the critical role of initial conditions. The MME-mean demonstrates proficient and stable skill in predicting large-scale circulation, particularly within the tropical and subtropical regions. The temporal evolution of the Philippine Sea anticyclone is captured with significant skill across all lead times. Conversely, predictive skill for mid-latitude circulation anomalies over Eurasia degrades rapidly with increasing lead time. Prediction skill for global sea surface temperature (SST) fields is notably high. The MME-mean also partially alleviates the characteristic “spring predictability barrier” for ENSO evident in individual models. However, a focused analysis for the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze indicates that even the best-performing individual model fails to accurately predict precipitation anomalies in several extreme years, particularly flood years, which is attributed to more complex antecedent SST patterns. In summary, the MME-mean approach significantly enhances the predictive skill for large-scale precursor signals associated with summer precipitation over China. However, substantial challenges remain in accurately predicting regional precipitation anomalies, particularly for extreme precipitation events. Future efforts should also prioritize exploiting probabilistic forecasting reliability and integrating physically-constrained machine learning techniques for bias correction.

     

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