基于CMA-MESO模式的两次冰雹过程数值模拟

Numerical Simulation of Two Hailstorm Processes Based on CMA-MESO

  • 摘要: 耦合详细云微物理方案的高分辨率数值模式是研究冰雹云结构及其形成机制的重要手段。基于中国气象局中尺度数值模式(CMA-MESO 6.0)的动力框架及原有双参数微物理方案,通过引入更详细的冰雹微物理过程,实现了对冰雹云发展及降雹过程的显式模拟。利用该改进方案,对2023年3月22日发生在赣闽地区的多单体强冰雹过程及2024年3月24日重庆东北部大范围风雹过程进行数值模拟。模拟结果表明:模式较好再现了两次过程中降水的空间分布、降雹落区及风暴演变特征,但在反射率因子上存在偏差,对赣闽过程表现为高估,而对重庆过程则为低估。微物理分析表明:冰雹的形成与演变依赖于云中过冷液态水含量、冰相粒子分布及垂直气流的协同作用,400~600 hPa层是冰雹粒子生成的关键区域;赣闽过程表现为典型多单体强风暴,上升运动深,过冷水含量高,冰雹增长条件好,降雹强度大;重庆过程上升气流较弱,过冷水总量有限,冰雹粒径小且分布分散,使其降雹呈时段集中、范围广、强度偏弱的特点。

     

    Abstract: High-resolution numerical models coupled with detailed cloud microphysical schemes are essential tools for in-depth investigation of hail cloud structure and formation mechanisms. Based on the dynamic framework of CMA-MESO 6.0 and its original double-moment cloud microphysical scheme, an explicit double-moment hail microphysical scheme is developed by incorporating more detailed hail physical processes. High-resolution numerical simulations are then conducted for two severe convective events: A multi-cell hailstorm in Jiangxi-Fujian on 22 March 2023 and a widespread severe wind and hail event in northeastern Chongqing on 24 March 2024. Simulations are conducted to evaluate the applicability of the newly developed scheme within CMA-MESO modeling system and to systematically analyze the dynamic, thermodynamic, and microphysical structural characteristics throughout the lifecycle of the hail clouds. Results indicate that CMA-MESO 6.0, when coupled with the new scheme, can reasonably reproduce the microphysical structure and its spatiotemporal evolution for both types of hail clouds, demonstrating explicit forecasting capability for hail mixing ratio and number concentration. The spatial distribution and temporal evolution of simulated rainfall and hail for both events are generally consistent with observations, despite some biases in reflectivity intensity exist, specifically an overestimation for Jiangxi-Fujian case and an underestimation for Chongqing case. The model successfully reproduces the developmental, mature, and dissipating stages of the multi-cell severe storm, elucidating the key dynamic-microphysical mechanisms, including the transport of supercooled water by the updraft, hail growth, and subsequent fallout. Microphysical analysis indicates that hail formation and evolution depend on the synergistic effects of supercooled liquid water content, ice-phase particle distribution, and vertical airflow, with 400-600 hPa layer identified as a critical region for hail particle generation and growth. Specifically, Jiangxi-Fujian case exhibits characteristics of a typical multi-cell severe storm, featuring deep, strong updrafts and abundant supercooled water. These conditions provide a favorable environment for hail growth, resulting in intense hailfall. In contrast, Chongqing case is characterized by weaker updrafts and a limited supply of supercooled water, leading to smaller hailstone size, a more dispersed spatial distribution, and hailfall being temporally concentrated and spatially widespread but of relatively lower intensity. These ressults provide a foundation for developing refined cloud microphysical parameterization schemes. Future efforts will focus on continued testing and optimization of the scheme by incorporating more observational data.

     

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