Abstract:
The three-body scatter signature (TBSS) is a critical indicator for the detection of large hail (diameter is greater than 20 mm) using S-band Doppler weather radar. It is characterized by spurious echoes resulting from a triple-scattering processes: Initial scattering in the hail region, ground reflection, and secondary scattering back through the hail region. To improve hail warning accuracy and mitigate TBSS-induced artifacts in quantitative precipitation estimation, the development of automated TBSS identification algorithms is essential. A limitation in previous algorithmic is the imposition of an artificial constraint, whereby grid points with a horizontal polarization reflectivity factor (
ZH) no more than 25 dBZ are classified as TBSS regions, and this inherently limits detection when the signature is obscured by genuine precipitation echoes exceeding this threshold.An innovative dual-polarization algorithm named TBSS-RFK is introduced, which synergistically combines random forest classification with
K-means clustering to overcome these limitations. The methodology leverages a comprehensive dataset comprising 930 carefully validated cases (465 TBSS and 465 non-TBSS samples), derived from large hail events observed across Hunan Province from 2021 to 2025. For each event, three key dual-polarization parameters are extracted: The horizontal polarimetric reflectivity factor (
ZH), differential reflectivity (
ZDR), and correlation coefficient. The algorithm is designed to automatically identify TBSS grid points at a 1°×1 km resolution, followed by a comprehensive performance evaluation and application case analysis.Built upon a comprehensive understanding of TBSS formation mechanisms, polarimetric characteristics, and physical essence, TBSS-RFK algorithm successfully addresses the long-standing challenge of detecting TBSS obscured by genuine precipitation echoes. The algorithm achieves exceptional performance metrics with 96.6% probability of detection (POD), 6.5% false alarm ratio (FAR), and 90.5% critical success index (CSI). Compared with conventional single-polarization TBSS detection algorithms, TBSS-RFK demonstrates significant improvements by a 16% reduction in FAR and a 20.5% enhancement of CSI.Feature selection constitutes the cornerstone of TBSS-RFK algorithm's success. The availability of dual-polarization radar parameters enables robust identification of precipitation-embedded TBSS, with
ZH and correlation coefficient identified as particularly diagnostic. Statistical analysis reveals that 50% of confirmed TBSS grid points are characterized by low-value thresholds:
ZH not exceeding 15.0 dBZ,
ZDR not exceeding 0.19 dB, and correlation coefficient not exceeding 0.84. Through rigorous examination of these polarimetric signatures and their physical interpretations, the algorithm strategically employs low-value regimes of
ZH,
ZDR, and correlation coefficient as primary detection features, with correlation coefficient emerging as the most statistically significant discriminator. This physics-informed feature engineering approach underpins the algorithm's superior performance.By transforming complex image recognition into an efficient binary classification task through meteorologically informed feature engineering, TBSS-RFK algorithm provides a robust operational solution and offers insights for developing lightweight machine learning algorithms. A primary limitation is that the algorithm's validation is based on 465 samples from Hunan Province, leaving its generalizability to other geographic/climatic regions unexplored. Future work will be directed toward assessing its stability with larger datasets.