双偏振天气雷达三体散射特征自动识别算法

Automatic Identification of Three-body Scatter Signatures in Dual-polarization Radar

  • 摘要: 利用2021—2025年湖南大冰雹(直径不小于20 mm)个例双偏振雷达数据,在人工筛选465组三体散射特征样本和465组非三体散射特征样本的基础上,定量提取每组样本的水平偏振反射率因子、差分反射率和相关系数作为特征数据集,构建基于随机森林和K均值聚类的三体散射特征自动识别算法,实现精确到1°×1 km的三体散射特征格点自动识别,并进行测试效果评估和应用个例分析。结果表明:算法在解决有降水回波遮挡的三体散射特征精确识别问题上表现优异,识别命中率达到96.6%,虚警率仅为6.5%,临界成功指数达到90.5%,与基于单偏振雷达数据识别三体散射特征的机器学习算法相比,虚警率降低16%,临界成功指数提升20.5%。特征分析表明:水平偏振反射率因子和相关系数对识别被真实降水回波遮挡的三体散射特征具有关键作用,水平偏振反射率因子不超过15.0 dBZ,差分反射率不超过0.19 dB,相关系数不超过0.84,其中相关系数产品尤为重要。算法通过创新特征工程将复杂图像识别转化为高效二分类任务,具备良好的业务应用价值。

     

    Abstract: The three-body scatter signature (TBSS) is a critical indicator for the detection of large hail (diameter is greater than 20 mm) using S-band Doppler weather radar. It is characterized by spurious echoes resulting from a triple-scattering processes: Initial scattering in the hail region, ground reflection, and secondary scattering back through the hail region. To improve hail warning accuracy and mitigate TBSS-induced artifacts in quantitative precipitation estimation, the development of automated TBSS identification algorithms is essential. A limitation in previous algorithmic is the imposition of an artificial constraint, whereby grid points with a horizontal polarization reflectivity factor (ZH) no more than 25 dBZ are classified as TBSS regions, and this inherently limits detection when the signature is obscured by genuine precipitation echoes exceeding this threshold.An innovative dual-polarization algorithm named TBSS-RFK is introduced, which synergistically combines random forest classification with K-means clustering to overcome these limitations. The methodology leverages a comprehensive dataset comprising 930 carefully validated cases (465 TBSS and 465 non-TBSS samples), derived from large hail events observed across Hunan Province from 2021 to 2025. For each event, three key dual-polarization parameters are extracted: The horizontal polarimetric reflectivity factor (ZH), differential reflectivity (ZDR), and correlation coefficient. The algorithm is designed to automatically identify TBSS grid points at a 1°×1 km resolution, followed by a comprehensive performance evaluation and application case analysis.Built upon a comprehensive understanding of TBSS formation mechanisms, polarimetric characteristics, and physical essence, TBSS-RFK algorithm successfully addresses the long-standing challenge of detecting TBSS obscured by genuine precipitation echoes. The algorithm achieves exceptional performance metrics with 96.6% probability of detection (POD), 6.5% false alarm ratio (FAR), and 90.5% critical success index (CSI). Compared with conventional single-polarization TBSS detection algorithms, TBSS-RFK demonstrates significant improvements by a 16% reduction in FAR and a 20.5% enhancement of CSI.Feature selection constitutes the cornerstone of TBSS-RFK algorithm's success. The availability of dual-polarization radar parameters enables robust identification of precipitation-embedded TBSS, with ZH and correlation coefficient identified as particularly diagnostic. Statistical analysis reveals that 50% of confirmed TBSS grid points are characterized by low-value thresholds: ZH not exceeding 15.0 dBZ, ZDR not exceeding 0.19 dB, and correlation coefficient not exceeding 0.84. Through rigorous examination of these polarimetric signatures and their physical interpretations, the algorithm strategically employs low-value regimes of ZH, ZDR, and correlation coefficient as primary detection features, with correlation coefficient emerging as the most statistically significant discriminator. This physics-informed feature engineering approach underpins the algorithm's superior performance.By transforming complex image recognition into an efficient binary classification task through meteorologically informed feature engineering, TBSS-RFK algorithm provides a robust operational solution and offers insights for developing lightweight machine learning algorithms. A primary limitation is that the algorithm's validation is based on 465 samples from Hunan Province, leaving its generalizability to other geographic/climatic regions unexplored. Future work will be directed toward assessing its stability with larger datasets.

     

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