中国气象科学研究院大气成分研究及业务应用进展

Advances in Research and Operational Applications of Atmospheric Composition at Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences

  • 摘要: 2000—2025年中国气象科学研究院紧扣国家发展需求与国际科技前沿,在大气成分综合观测、大气化学数值预报、碳达峰碳中和科技支撑三大核心领域实现跨越式发展。牵头建成中国气象局大气成分综合观测体系,实现观测网络由早期4个本底站向多类型、高密度综合监测网络拓展,形成空天地一体化多维监测格局,为相关研究与业务提供高精度观测数据支撑。持续迭代自主研发的大气化学模式CUACE(China Meteorological Administration Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environment),相继建成亚洲沙尘暴、中国雾-霾、区域化学天气等系列气象业务数值预报系统,有力支撑重大活动空气质量保障与气象防灾减灾工作。面向“双碳”战略,研发碳源汇同化反演系统,构建全国碳源汇时空分布数据集与气候变化决策支撑系统,提出适配《巴黎协定》2 ℃温控目标的全球碳中和排放情景,相关成果为政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第七次评估报告提供重要中国支撑。中国气象科学研究院建立科研-业务-应用全链条转化机制,各项技术成果全面融入国家级气象业务体系,为我国大气环境治理、“双碳”目标落地及全球气候治理提供核心科技保障。

     

    Abstract: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS) closely aligns with national strategy needs and international research frontiers, achieving leapfrog development in three core fields from 2000 to 2025. In the field of observation systems, CAMS takes the lead in constructing the comprehensive observation system of atmospheric composition of China Meteorological Administration, expanding from the initial four atmosphere baseline stations to a multi-type comprehensive observation network. It completes the construction of the world’s largest national greenhouse gas observation network with 157 stations in 2025, forming a multi-dimensional monitoring framework and providing high-precision data support. In the field of numerical forecast, CAMS continuously advances China’s atmospheric chemistry model CUACE (China Meteorological Administration Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environment) and develops a series of meteorological operational forecast systems. The Asian sand and dust storm numerical forecast system gains international recognition, laying a solid foundation for air quality assurance during major events. The regional chemical weather numerical forecast system not only improves the forecast performance of haze-fog and sand dust, but also enhances the forecast accuracy of conventional numerical weather forecast systems for meteorological elements such as precipitation and temperature by quantifying the interactions between human activities and radiation, as well as clouds. In the field of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality support, CAMS establishes a carbon source and sink assimilation inversion system and a spatiotemporal distribution dataset of carbon sources and sinks in China, builds a decision support system for climate change research and response, and proposes a global carbon neutrality emission scenario for 2 ℃ target aligned with the Paris Agreement. Relevant outcomes contribute China’s strength to the Seventh Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In the recent decade (2015-2025), CAMS undertakes a total of 107 national-level scientific research projects, publishes 543 SCI papers, and wins 2 national-level awards. It forms an integrated transformation mechanism of “research, operation and application”, with the institute’s technological achievements fully supporting national-level meteorological operations. CAMS provides core scientific and technological support for the improvement of China’s atmospheric environment, the achievement of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, and global climate governance.

     

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