中国气象科学研究院极端天气气候事件研究进展

Research Progress on Extreme Weather and Climate Events at Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences

  • 摘要: 极端事件的变化对自然生态系统和社会经济构成严峻挑战,已成为气候变化领域的研究前沿与热点。该文系统回顾了中国气象科学研究院在极端天气气候事件研究领域取得的重要进展。揭示了中国区域极端高温、强降水等事件的时空演变规律,发现极端高温、强降水频次与强度的显著增加趋势,并率先关注到日夜复合型高温、高温干旱等复合极端事件演变的新特征。深化了对大气环流变化、海-陆-气相互作用及遥相关模态影响区域极端事件物理过程的理解。通过发展物理可解释性的归因方法,揭示了人类活动通过调控天气系统物理过程对中国极端高温、极端降水等事件的显著影响。重点发展了持续性强降水预报技术,基于多模式集合预估结果,随着约束预估方法的不断发展和深入应用,推动了极端事件预估研究从定性趋势判断向定量化风险精准评估的转变。研究指出未来中国极端高温、强降水和复合事件的发生风险将进一步加剧,为气候变化风险评估及适应与减缓策略的制定提供了关键科学依据。

     

    Abstract: Changes in extreme events pose severe challenges to natural ecosystems and the social economy. This issue has emerged as a frontier and hotspot in climate change research. Major achievements made by Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences in the research on extreme event research over recent decades are systematically reviewed. In terms of observational facts, spatiotemporal evolution patterns of extreme heat and heavy precipitation in China are revealed. A significant increasing trend is identified in the frequency and intensity of daily extreme heat and heavy precipitation. Furthermore, early attention has been paid to new evolutionary characteristics of compound extreme events, such as compound day-night heat extremes and compound hot-dry events. A fundamental shift is identified in the dominant type of summer extreme heat in China: The predominance of daytime-type heat extremes is weakening, while compound-type and nighttime-type extreme heat events have increased significantly. At the same time, the frequency, spatial extent, and persistence of compound hot-dry events have markedly increased. In the field of mechanisms and attribution, the understanding of the physical processes of atmospheric circulation changes, land-ocean-atmosphere interactions, and the influence of teleconnection patterns on regional extreme events has been deepened. Synergistic effects of large-scale circulation and local land-atmosphere interactions on extreme heat over North China and the Yangtze River Basin are clarified, as well as combined effects of tropical and mid-to-high-latitude circulations on persistent heavy precipitation over main river basins of eastern China. By developing physically interpretable attribution methods and conditional attribution approaches, the significant impact of human activities on extreme heavy precipitation events in China is demonstrated through the modulation of physical processes in weather systems. In addition, a stepwise fingerprinting method and a multivariate attribution framework have been developed, enabling the quantitative attribution of compound heat events and compound hot-dry events. In terms of forecasting and projection, techniques for forecasting persistent heavy rainfall have been established. By constructing analog forecasting based on key influencing systems, skill in medium- to long-term forecasting of heavy precipitation over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin has been effectively enhanced. Based on multi-model ensemble projection results and with the continuous development and application of constrained projection methods, the research on extreme event projections has progressed from qualitative trend evaluation toward quantitative risk precise assessment. Findings indicate that risks of extreme high temperatures, heavy precipitation, and compound events in China will further intensify in the future, providing critical scientific evidence for climate change risk assessment and the formulation of adaptation and mitigation strategies.

     

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