Abstract:
Changes in extreme events pose severe challenges to natural ecosystems and the social economy. This issue has emerged as a frontier and hotspot in climate change research. Major achievements made by Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences in the research on extreme event research over recent decades are systematically reviewed. In terms of observational facts, spatiotemporal evolution patterns of extreme heat and heavy precipitation in China are revealed. A significant increasing trend is identified in the frequency and intensity of daily extreme heat and heavy precipitation. Furthermore, early attention has been paid to new evolutionary characteristics of compound extreme events, such as compound day-night heat extremes and compound hot-dry events. A fundamental shift is identified in the dominant type of summer extreme heat in China: The predominance of daytime-type heat extremes is weakening, while compound-type and nighttime-type extreme heat events have increased significantly. At the same time, the frequency, spatial extent, and persistence of compound hot-dry events have markedly increased. In the field of mechanisms and attribution, the understanding of the physical processes of atmospheric circulation changes, land-ocean-atmosphere interactions, and the influence of teleconnection patterns on regional extreme events has been deepened. Synergistic effects of large-scale circulation and local land-atmosphere interactions on extreme heat over North China and the Yangtze River Basin are clarified, as well as combined effects of tropical and mid-to-high-latitude circulations on persistent heavy precipitation over main river basins of eastern China. By developing physically interpretable attribution methods and conditional attribution approaches, the significant impact of human activities on extreme heavy precipitation events in China is demonstrated through the modulation of physical processes in weather systems. In addition, a stepwise fingerprinting method and a multivariate attribution framework have been developed, enabling the quantitative attribution of compound heat events and compound hot-dry events. In terms of forecasting and projection, techniques for forecasting persistent heavy rainfall have been established. By constructing analog forecasting based on key influencing systems, skill in medium- to long-term forecasting of heavy precipitation over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin has been effectively enhanced. Based on multi-model ensemble projection results and with the continuous development and application of constrained projection methods, the research on extreme event projections has progressed from qualitative trend evaluation toward quantitative risk precise assessment. Findings indicate that risks of extreme high temperatures, heavy precipitation, and compound events in China will further intensify in the future, providing critical scientific evidence for climate change risk assessment and the formulation of adaptation and mitigation strategies.