中国气象科学研究院近20年台风研究进展

Advances in Typhoon Research at Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences over the Past Two Decades

  • 摘要: 该文回顾了近20年中国气象科学研究院在台风外场试验、机理研究、海气相互作用、预报技术及交叉应用等方面的进展。外场试验从参与国际计划到建成多平台协同观测体系,实现了台风结构精细化捕捉。机理研究揭示了初始涡旋尺度、垂直风切变对台风强度变化的关键作用,阐明了快速增强与陆上维持的多尺度控制因子,以及高空冷涡和台湾地形引发的路径突变机制;探讨了台风极端降水、远距离暴雨及残涡降水增幅的物理机制,并拓展至孟加拉湾,提出了风暴桥水汽3次抬升输送机制。技术层面,发展了区域海气耦合模式和海表降温参数化方案,建成了全球非结构网格海-浪-气-陆-冰全耦合预报系统;研发了雷达径向风同化超级观测算法,构建了我国首个业务化台风快速更新短时临近预报系统(Typhoon Rapid Refresh Analysis and Nowcasting System version 1.0,TRANS V1.0),并探索人工智能(artificial intelligence,AI)与数值预报协同新范式,构建了AI-TRANS预报系统。交叉应用方面,建立了工程台风风场精细化预报模型,研发了台风灾害链随机模拟技术与巨灾指数保险方案,以新质生产力赋能台风灾害防御。

     

    Abstract: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS) has been a pivotal contributor to typhoon research in China, achieving numerous significant accomplishments through continuous exploration over its 70-year history. This review systematically summarizes the major progress achieved by CAMS over the past two decades in fields of typhoon field experiments, typhoon mechanisms, typhoon-ocean interaction, forecasting techniques, and cross-disciplinary applications. Regarding field experiments, efforts have evolved from early participation in international cooperative experiments such as TOPEX (Typhoon Operatronal Experiment) to recent land-air-space-sea coordinated observations, establishing a multi-platform typhoon observation system. In mechanism studies, the influence of initial vortex size and environmental vertical wind shear on typhoon intensity change has been revealed, and multi-scale controlling factors for rapid intensification and post-landfall maintenance have been elucidated. Effects of upper-level cold vortices and dynamic-thermal effects of Taiwan Island’s topography on track sudden changes have also been identified. The physical mechanisms underlying extreme typhoon rainfall, remote precipitation, and rainfall enhancement by remnant vortices have been systematically investigated. Furthermore, the research has extended to the Bay of Bengal cyclones in the North Indian Ocean, proposing dynamic mechanisms such as the “three-step uplift” water vapor transport. Regarding typhoon-ocean interaction, a sea surface temperature cooling parameterization scheme and a regional atmosphere-ocean coupled model have been developed, and a global unstructured-grid sea-wave-atmosphere-land-ice fully coupled real-time forecasting system has been established. In terms of forecasting technology, a super-observation processing algorithm for radar radial wind assimilation has been developed, and China’s first operational Typhoon Rapid Refresh Analysis and Nowcasting System Version 1.0 (TRANS V1.0) has been constructed. AI-TRANS typhoon forecasting system, which integrates AI large-scale models with regional numerical models, has been developed, exploring a new paradigm of AI-NWP synergy. In cross-disciplinary applications, a refined engineering typhoon wind field model has been established, contributing to the national standard for tropical cyclone impact assessment on offshore wind farms. Typhoon disaster chain simulation technology is developed, along with the development of a catastrophe index insurance scheme. Finally, future research directions are outlined, aiming to provide further scientific references for typhoon disaster prevention and climate change adaptation in China.

     

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