中国气象科学研究院农业气象70年科研进展

Research Progress in Agrometeorology at Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences over the Past 70 Years

  • 摘要: 农业气象学是保障国家粮食安全、推动农业可持续发展的重要基础学科。中国气象科学研究院自 1956年建院以来,便将农业气象研究列为重点发展方向,历经奠基探索期、科研业务融合发展期、创新提升期、高质量发展期4个阶段,建成了涵盖基础观测、理论研究、技术突破、业务服务的完整学科体系。70年来,在农业气候资源、农业气象灾害、作物产量预报、农业气象数值模式等方面开展系统研究:完成全国各级农业气候资源评估与区划,分析了气候变化对作物生长与产量的影响,建立了农业气象灾害与病虫害监测预警评估技术体系;构建了作物产量统计预报与遥感估产技术,转至国家气象中心业务运行;自主研发中国农业气象模式,实现天擎云原生平台的业务化应用。同时,河北固城农业气象国家野外科学观测研究站也为科研工作提供了坚实的野外观测与数据支撑。未来,中国气象科学研究院将在复合气象灾害机理、新技术应用、成果转化与国际合作方面持续发力,为农业气象高质量发展提供更强科技支撑。

     

    Abstract: As a core discipline linking meteorological conditions and agricultural production, agrometeorology is foundational for ensuring national food security and sustainable agricultural development. Since its establishment in 1956, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS) has consistently prioritized agrometeorological research as priority development areas. Its evolution can be categorized into 4 main phases: Initial establishment and exploration (during the year of 1956-1982), integration of scientific research with operational services (during the year of 1982-2002), the innovation and enhancement phase (during the year of 2002-2024), and high-quality development phase (since the year of 2024). A comprehensive disciplinary system has been developed, encompassing basic observation, technological innovation, theoretical breakthroughs, and operational services. Over the past 70 years, a series of remarkable achievements have been achieved in agrometeorology.
    In the field of agricultural climatic resources research, CAMS has completed multi-level agricultural climatic zonation across the country, clarifying spatiotemporal distribution patterns of light, heat, water, and other key climatic resources. On this basis, a quality evaluation model for agricultural climatic resource has been developed. These innovative achievements have been recognized with National Science and Technology Progress Awards.
    In the field of climate change impacts research, CAMS has analyzed spatiotemporal evolutionary characteristics of agricultural climatic resources under future climate scenarios. Subsequently, mechanisms affecting crop cultivation systems, growth, development, and yield have been revealed, and several adaptation strategies have been proposed.
    In the field of agrometeorological disasters research, CAMS has established over 30 agrometeorological disaster indicators by incorporating advanced approaches such as 3S technology and artificial intelligence. Some of these indicators have been adopted and issued as national or industry standards. Furthermore, a technical system for dynamic monitoring and early warning of agrometeorological disasters has been established, achieving a warning accuracy exceeding 80%.
    In the field of crop yield forecasting, a methodological system for agrometeorological yield statistical forecasting and remote sensing-based yield estimation has been established, delivering a forecasting accuracy of over 95%. This system supports the national operational service for crop yield forecasting. Moreover, Chinese Agricultural Meteorology Model (CAMM) has been independently developed and upgraded from version 1.0 to 3.0. At present, CAMM enables operational monitoring and prediction for six crops at a 5-km grid scale. Gucheng Ecological and Agrometeorological Experiment Station also provides long-term in-situ observations and strong technical support.
    In the future, agrometeorological research should focus on deepening compound meteorological disaster mechanisms, promoting the integrated application of new technologies, transforming scientific research achievements, and expanding international cooperation, thereby continuously empower the high-quality development of agrometeorology.

     

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