中国气象科学研究院近5年生态气象研究进展

Advances in Eco-meteorological Research at Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences over the Past 5 Years

  • 摘要: 面对气候变暖加剧对陆地生态系统带来的深远影响,生态气象作为地球系统科学的新兴学科在应对生态与气候风险中发挥着重要作用。近5年中国气象科学研究院在生态气象领域取得的突出进展包括构建生态气象天-空-地立体联网监测体系与多尺度长时序数据集,提出植物物候变化的全气候生产要素驱动新认知,阐明气候变暖背景下多环境因子协同驱动生态系统水碳交换的非线性调控机制,明确气候变暖背景下植物干旱灾变阈值并建立大气-土壤-植被综合干旱监测指标,建成首个智能化的国家级生态气象云服务平台。在此基础上提出了未来生态气象研究拟重点关注的研究方向:加强基于国产卫星的天-空-地一体化监测与多源数据深度融合,提升复杂地表环境下的地物识别与定量反演能力;开展复合极端事件生态韧性研究,揭示生态系统在多重环境胁迫下的抗性、恢复力及状态突变机制;研发融合人工智能的预警模型,促进生态气象服务的规模化、精确化与智能化。

     

    Abstract: Facing the profound impacts of intensifying climate warming on terrestrial ecosystems, eco-meteorology, as an emerging discipline within earth system science, plays a crucial role in addressing ecological and climate risks. Research paradigms have shifted from single-factor to multi-factor synergy, from mean climate conditions to compound extremes, and from linear to nonlinear responses. Over the past 5 years, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS) has achieved prominent progress in eco-meteorology, with key advancements are summarized as follows.
    First, a three-dimensional “space-air-ground” integrated monitoring network has been established, supporting nationwide stage-sowing experiments, long-term eddy covariance flux observations, and multi-source remote sensing datasets. Second, a novel understanding of plant phenology driven by total climatic production factors has been proposed. The phenology simulation model based on cumulative climatic production potential captures nonlinear responses and critical thresholds. Third, the nonlinear regulatory mechanisms of ecosystem water-carbon exchange under climate warming have been elucidated. Plant functional traits are found to follow a global “acquisition-conservation” trade-off along the leaf economic spectrum, shaped by precipitation and temperature. Nevertheless, rapid warming can decouple these trait relationships, thereby reducing ecosystem resilience. Fourth, plant drought disaster thresholds have been identified, and a comprehensive drought index (CDI) integrating meteorological, soil and vegetation drought has been developed, improving national drought monitoring accuracy by over 20%. Fifth, the first intelligent national eco-meteorological cloud service platform has been built, integrating artificial intelligence (AI), big data, geographic information system, and 5G technologies for automated data processing, interactive analysis, and one-click generation of monitoring reports.
    Based on these advancements, priority research directions for future eco-meteorological studies are proposed: Strengthening the “space-air-ground” integrated monitoring system and deep fusion of multi-source data based on Chinese domestic satellites, thereby enhancing capabilities in land-cover identification and quantitative parameter retrieval over complex surfaces; investigating ecological resilience to compound extreme events, with a focus on revealing mechanisms of ecosystem resistance, recovery, and regime shifts under multiple environmental stressors; developing next-generation artificial intelligence early warning models to promote the scalability, precision, and intelligence of eco-meteorological services. These efforts are expected to provide robust scientific support for ecological security, disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation under intensifying global warming.

     

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