高影响天气下我国交通气象灾害风险评估进展

Advances in Transportation Disaster Risk Assessment Under High-impact Weather in China

  • 摘要: 该文梳理了近年我国在高影响天气对交通运输影响的灾害风险评估领域最新成果,从风险评估理论框架在交通气象领域应用、主要评估方法、不同交通运输方式气象灾害风险评估差异3个方面进行阐述。指出近30年我国交通气象灾害风险评估在技术突破和方法迭代方面经历了评估理论框架确立、多灾种综合评估的发展、数字化智能化服务3个演进阶段。过去20余年,风险评估从单灾种向多灾种综合、从静态向动态预警发展。技术方法上,初期以统计回归和数学模型为主;随后引入地理信息系统(GIS)深度应用与多源数据融合,形成风险指标体系及层次分析法、熵权法、组合赋权法、模糊综合评价等技术方法。当前,机器学习与传统方法融合并拓展至因果推断,通过构建优化评估模型提升应用效果。今后,需进一步融合人工智能、智能驾驶、低空经济等前沿技术和场景,通过多学科交叉融合,推动智能化交通气象灾害风险评估技术发展,使交通气象风险管理更加科学、精准,以支撑交通强国建设的安全保障需求。

     

    Abstract: With the development of China's transportation infrastructure, high-impact weather is posing increasingly severe threats to transportation. Conducting scientific and precise meteorological disaster risk assessments is crucial for enhancing the resilience of transportation system, safeguarding lives and property, and maintaining the functioning of the economy and society. A review is conducted on recent advances in disaster risk assessment of high-impact weather on transportation in China. The progress in transportation meteorological disaster risk assessment is summarized from 3 perspectives: Application of risk assessment frameworks in transportation meteorology, principal assessment methods and models, and the differences in risk assessment approaches across different transportation modes. It indicates that over the past 3 decades, China's transportation meteorological disaster risk assessment has undergone 3 evolutionary stages in terms of technological breakthroughs and methodological iteration: Establishment of theoretical assessment frameworks, advancement toward multi-hazard integrated assessment, and advancement toward digital and intelligent services. Specifically, over the past 2 decades, the focus has evolved from single-hazard to multi-hazard comprehensive assessment, and from static evaluation to dynamic early warning. In terms of technical methods, early efforts relied primarily on statistical regression and mathematical modeling. Subsequently, the in-depth application of Geographic Information System (GIS) and multi-source data fusion facilitated the establishment of risk indicator systems and weighting methods, including analytic hierarchy process (AHP), entropy weighting, combined weighting, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Currently, artificial intelligence and digital earth are driving the transformation of disaster assessment toward digital and intelligent services. Machine learning is being integrated with traditional methods and extended to causal inference, with the application effectiveness being enhanced through the development and optimization of assessment models. In the future, it is necessary to further integrate cutting-edge technologies and scenarios such as artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, and the low-altitude economy. Through interdisciplinary integration, intelligent transportation meteorological disaster risk assessment technologies should be advanced, enabling more scientific and precise meteorological risk management in transportation. This will help address safety and security demands of building China's strength in transportation.

     

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