黄淮海平原冬小麦发育期对气候变化的响应

Phenological Response of Winter Wheat to Climate Change in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain

  • 摘要: 基于1981—2024年黄淮海平原62个农业气象站观测数据, 探究冬小麦发育期对气候变化的响应。结果显示:冬小麦发育期呈显著的前延后提、整体缩短时空特征, 即播种、出苗、分蘖、越冬开始普遍推迟, 起身及之后的拔节至成熟普遍显著提前, 其中开花提前幅度最明显(2.23 d·(10 a)-1)。91.94%的站点全生育期以2.86 d·(10 a)-1速率缩短。各发育阶段长度变化呈不对称性, 即越冬开始-起身急剧缩短(-1.96 d·(10 a)-1), 83.87%的站点开花-成熟以1.23 d·(10 a)-1速率延长。发育期变化趋势纬度分异显著, 越冬开始在各纬度带均推迟, 且由北向南推迟加剧, 返青后发育期的提前趋势在低纬度地区最突出。结构方程模型揭示了双向挤压机制, 即气候因子一方面对全生育期产生直接压缩效应, 另一方面通过促使发育期提前并与关键发育阶段(如越冬开始-起身)长度缩短相关联, 这两种路径协同作用共同解释了全生育期79%的变异。

     

    Abstract: A comprehensive analysis is conducted on the spatiotemporal response of winter wheat phenology to ongoing climate change in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, a vital grain production base in China. Utilizing long-term, high-quality observations from 62 nationally managed agrometeorological stations spanning the period of 1981-2024, the shifts in key phenological stages and corresponding growth phase lengths are systematically quantified. The integrated analysis employs a suite of methods, including kernel density estimation, linear trend analysis, and structural equation modeling (SEM), to disentangle the complex drivers behind these temporal changes and spatial patterns.Results reveal a pronounced and coherent spatiotemporal pattern characterized by delayed early vegetative stages but advanced later reproductive stages, resulting in an overall shortening of the growth cycle. Specifically, a general trend of delay is observed for the dates of sowing, emergence, tillering, and the onset of overwintering. Following a spatially heterogeneous regreening stage, the rising stage and all subsequent reproductive stages are significantly advanced, with anthesis showing the most rapid advance at a median rate of -2.23 d·(10 a)-1. This phenological restructuring leads to a significant compression of the entire growth period, which shortens at a rate of -2.86 d·(10 a)-1 at 91.94% of the stations. However, changes in the durations of specific growth phases are markedly asymmetric. The critical phase from overwintering onset to rising shortens sharply at a rate of -1.96 d·(10 a)-1. Conversely, the grain filling phase is lengthened by 1.23 d·(10 a)-1 at 83.87% of stations. Spatially, these trends exhibit significant latitudinal differentiation. The delay in overwintering onset intensified from north to south, while the advancement of post-regreening stages is most pronounced in southern low-latitude zones. The shortening of the overwintering-to-rising phase is particularly severe in the central latitudinal belt. To unravel the underlying mechanisms, a structural equation model is constructed. The model quantified a dual-squeeze mechanism: Climate factors directly compress the total growth period, and also indirectly compress it by advancing phenology, which interacts with the shortening of key intermediate phases. These pathways together explain 79% of the variance in growth period length. Geographical factors, especially latitude, are confirmed as the fundamental determinant of the baseline spatial pattern, upon which climate change signals are superimposed.This research contributes to a deeper mechanistic understanding of "climate-crop-management" interactions, providing critical evidence for optimizing regional cropping systems, calibrating crop models, and formulating targeted adaptation strategies to safeguard production. Future studies should further disentangle the contributions of genetic improvement and management adaptations from pure climate effects and investigate the links to final yield outcomes.

     

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