2016, 27(3): 352-360.
DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20160310
Abstract:
The northeast region is an important maize production area in China. Chilling injury is a main meteorological disaster for maize, and yields of maize decrease over 15% in several serious chilling injury years. A new index of maize chilling injury is established, and the risk of the chilling injury is assessed. Based on previous research, the damage inflicted temperatures in each growing period of maize (including seedling stage, jointing stage, flowering stage and filling stage) are determined. A new chilling injury index of cold accumulated temperature (TCA for short) is defined, which can quantitatively describe strength of chilling injury, and its value is the difference between damage inflicted temperature and environment temperature. Calculation formulas of daily TCA, periodical TCA and annual TCA are given.According to decadal mean TCA, four regions of maize chilling injury in Northeast China are divided. Based on the analysis of relationship between annual TCA anomaly and annual yield reduction rates of the above regions, index of annual TCA anomaly in Northeast China is classified into 3 types: Chilling injury year but no damage, common damage year and serious damage year. Risks of chilling injury are calculated and regression equations are built. Finally, a model of space grid annual average TCA is constructed by geographical factors, including the latitude, longitude and altitude, and the probabilities of chilling injury are calculated by application of GIS. The risk index of maize chilling injury is a multiplication of disaster probability, vulnerability and exposure. Therefore, risks of maize chilling injury in Northeast China are assessed. The assessment shows that risks are low in the northern and the southern parts, while high in the western, middle and eastern areas. High risk regions include the northeast and northwest of Songnen Plain and the north center of Jilin Province, middle risk regions include the Sanjiang Plain, and risks are low in the north of Heilongjiang Province, the southeast of Jilin Province and the whole of Liaoning Province. These results may provide guidance for maize chilling injury prevention, loss reduction and planting structure adjustment in Northeast China.
Tang Yuxue, Guo Jianping. Risk assessment of maize chilling injury in Northeast China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2016, 27(3): 352-360. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20160310