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麦莎台风造成冀东大暴雨的数值模拟和诊断分析
Numerical Simulation and Diagnosis Analysis on Heavy Rain in East Hebei by Typhoon Matsa
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摘要: 2005年第9号台风麦莎登陆后减弱为热带风暴, 受其影响, 8月8—10日河北东部地区出现大暴雨天气过程。采用中尺度数值模式MM5对这次过程进行了模拟, 对模拟结果进行了综合分析。结果表明:暴雨区上空有准饱和且深厚稳定的湿层, 低层强烈辐合与高层辐散互相配合, 强降水区与散度和垂直上升中心有很好的对应关系; 台风东部暖、西部冷, 中低层偏东风急流将海洋上的高能量暖湿空气向暴雨区输送; 局地螺旋度的极大值中心对未来强降水区有一定的指示作用, 强降水区发生在风暴相对螺旋度的大值中心或其东南部的等值线密集区域。Abstract: A heavy rain occurs in east Hebei during August 8—10, 2005. It is caused by a tropical storm which is resulted from the weakened typhoon Matsa. Mesoscale numerical model MM5 V3 is used to simulate the case. The precipitation time and intention as well as the synoptic situations are compared with the observation. Similarities are found. Based on mesoscale numerical model products, the physical mechanisms of the heavy rain are analyzed.The results show that the water vapor on low-level is quasi-saturated and the humidity layer is deep and stationary during the heavy rain. There are upper-level atmosphere divergence and the low-level atmosphere convergence over the rainstorm area, and they result in strong ascending motion which is the dynamical mechanism of the initiation and maintaining of the heavy rain.The meso-and low-level air circulation and the θe field are analyzed. Results indicate that the thermal structure of typhoon is asymmetry. Its eastern region is warm and the western is cold. The strong easterly low-level jet sustains in north of the typhoon. Energy and warm vapour are transported toward the rain-storm area.In meso-and low-level troposphere the values of helicity over the rainfall center are always positive. The precipitation center is corresponding with the maximum helicity center, and its movement follows the maximum helicity center. The maximum helicity center has certain designation function for the center of the heavy rain in the future. The values of local helicity are large probably because of the large horizontal wind velocity or the horizontal vorticity or of the both. Abnormity of air is lead to, and so is the rainstorm. The results also indicate that the rainstorm occurs in the maximum SRH (storm relative helicity) center or in its southeast isoline denseness area. At the same time, the values of SRH in the rainstorm area always exceed 120 m2/s2 before or during the heavy rain. It means that the rotary environment wind field is advantageous to strengthen ascending motion. Enough flotage energy is provided for the convection.
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Key words:
- typhoon Matsa;
- heavy rain in east Hebei;
- storm relative helicity
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图 1 2005年8月9日08:00 500 hPa (a, b) 和8日20:00 850 hPa (c, d) 环流形势图
(a, c) 实况, (b, d) 模拟结果 (实线:高度场, 单位:dagpm; 虚线:温度场, 单位:℃)
Fig. 1 Circulation pattern of 500 hPa (a, b) at 08:00 on Aug 9 and 850 hPa (c, d) at 20:00 on Aug 8, 2005
(a, c) observation, (b, d) simulations (solid line:height field, unit:dagpm; dashed line:temperature field, unit:℃)
图 2 2005年8月8日20:00(a, b) 和9日14:00 (c, d)6h降水量实况与模拟结果 (单位:mm)
(a, c) 实况, (b, d) 模拟结果
Fig. 2 The 6-hour rainfall at 20:00 (a, b) on Aug 8 and 14:00 (c, d) on Aug 9, 2005 (unit:mm)
(a, c) observations, (b, d) simulations
图 3 2005年8月8日16:00相对湿度 (单位:%) (a)、15:00散度场 (单位:10-5s-1) (b) 和15:00垂直速度 (单位:cm·s-1) (c) 沿118.5°E的垂直剖面图
Fig. 3 Cross section of relative humidity at 16:00 (unit:%)(a), divergence at 15:00 (unit:10-5s-1)(b) and vertical velocity at 15:00 (unit:cm·s-1)(c) along 118.5°E on Aug 8, 2005
图 4 2005年8月8日08:00 (a) 和20:00 (b) 700 hPa风场 (风矢线) 与θe(实线, 单位:K)
Fig. 4 700hPa wind field (vector) and θe field (solid line, unit:K) at 08:00 (a) and 20:00 (b) on Aug 8, 2005
图 5 2005年8月8日10:00 (a) 和10日05:00 (b) 850 hPa局地螺旋度分布图 (单位:m/s2)
Fig. 5 850 hPa local helicity (unit:m/s2) distribution at 10:00 on Aug 8, 2005 (a) and 05:00 on Aug 10, 2005 (b)
图 6 2005年8月风暴相对螺旋度分布图 (单位:m2/s2)
(a)8日16:00, (b)9日10:00, (c)10日05:00
Fig. 6 SRH distribution (unit:m2/s2) (a) 16:00 on Aug 8, 2005, (b) 10:00 on Aug 9, 2005, (c) 05:00 on Aug 10, 2005
图 7 2005年8月8日10:00 (a, b) 和16:00 (c, d)850 hPa涡度 (实线, 单位:10-6s-1)、全风速 (阴影, 单位:m/s)(a, c)、风场 (风矢线) 与θe场 (实线, 单位:K)(b, d)
Fig. 7 850 hPa vorticity (solid line, unit:10-6s-1), wind velocity (shade, unit:m/s)(a, c) and wind field, θe(solid line, unit:K)(b, d) at 10:00 (a, b) and 16:00 (c, d) on Aug 8, 2005
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