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Response of Spring Maize Growth Stage to Climate Change in Northeast China over the Past 30 Years
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摘要: 基于1981—2010年东北地区55个农业气象观测站发育期数据、16个气象站逐日气象资料，采用趋势变率、秩相关分析、主成分分析和结构方程模型等方法，分析了近30年东北春玉米关键发育期的变化特征，探讨了春玉米发育期对不同时间尺度气象因子的响应规律。结果表明：1981—2010年春玉米关键发育期 (播种期、抽雄期、成熟期) 均有延后趋势，大部分地区春玉米生长前期 (播种期—抽雄期) 日数减少，生长后期 (抽雄期—成熟期) 日数增加，全生育期日数增加。在绝大多数年份，春玉米播种期在温度适播期之后，成熟期在初霜日之前。近30年对东北春玉米生育期日数影响最大的气象要素为温度，主成分分析结果显示，年际尺度的升温、温度生长期的延长和作物生长期的高温对生育期日数影响显著；结构方程模型指出，作物生长期的最高温度和最低温度对生育期日数影响有间接效应，主导气象要素能够解释生育期日数变异的44%。全球变暖背景下，东北春玉米发育期变化是作物响应气候变化和农业生产适应气候变化的共同结果。Abstract: Northeast China is the main producing area of spring maize. Study on the response of spring maize growth stages to climate change has important significance for the agricultural production in Northeast China.Based on observations of spring maize at 55 agricultural meteorological stations, and daily meteorological data of 16 meteorological stations in Northeast China, combined with generally accepted indicators of agricultural meteorology, as well as the law of growth and development of spring maize, significant meteorological factors affecting the spring maize growth are determined at three time scales of inter-annual, potential growing season and crop growth stages. Variations of spring maize growth stages in Northeast China over the past 30 years are analyzed, using methods of trend rate, spearman correlation analysis, principal component analysis and structural equation modeling. Relationships between maize growth stages and climate change are explored. Finally, responses of spring maize growth stages to meteorological factors over the past 30 years are further analyzed at different time scales.The result shows that spring maize critical growth stages in Northeast China over the past 30 years are postponed. Compared to the stage of tasseling, delaying trends at sowing stage and maturation stage are obvious in most areas. The number of days decreases during the early maize growth stages, while both the late maize growth stages and growth stages extend. In most years, the sowing date of spring maize is later than suitable planting date, and the maturating date is earlier than the first frost date, reducing risks. Under climate warming, the late-maturating maize can be expanded in these areas in order to improve the utilization of thermal resource. Responses of spring maize growth stages to temperature factors are the most notable during the past 30 years.The result by principal component analysis shows that the increased temperature at the inter-annual timescale, the prolonged temperature growth period and the high temperature on the crop growth stages are more notable than other meteorological factors. While, in the structural equation modeling, effects of temperature factors on growth stages are partly indirect, and significant meteorological factors can explain 44% of variation in growth stages. Results deepen understanding effects of climate change on crop mechanism, and can be used as scientific basis for adaptation to climate change in the future.
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图 1 关键发育期间隔日数年际变化
(a) 黑龙江省，(b) 吉林省，(c) 辽宁省，(d) 东北地区
Fig. 1 Interannual variation of number of critical growth stage interval days
(a) Heilongjiang Province, (b) Jilin Province, (c) Liaoning Province, (d) Northeast China
图 2 1981—2010年关键发育期间隔日数线性倾向率 (单位：d/a) 的空间分布
(空白区域为非玉米种植区)(a) 生长前期日数, (b) 生长后期日数, (c) 生育期日数
Fig. 2 The spatial distribution of linearity inclination rate of the number of critical growth stage interval days from 1981 to 2010
(the blank zone is none maize-growing area)(a) the number of early growth stage days, (b) the number of late growth stage days, (c) the number of growth stage days
图 3 东北春玉米播种期与日平均温度不低于10℃初日及成熟期与日平均温度不低于10℃终日、初霜日变化关系
Fig. 3 The relationship of sowing stage to the initial date no less than 10℃, and that of maturation stage to the final date no less than 10℃ with the first frost date about maize in Northeast China
图 4 东北春玉米生育期日数与主导气象要素的标准化结构方程模型
(图中要素均为标准化值，单向箭头表示回归，箭头旁数值为标准化回归系数；双向箭头表示相关，箭头旁数值为标准化相关系数)
Fig. 4 Standard structural equation modeling of the number of growth stage days of spring maize with significant meteorological factors in Northeast China
(factors are all standardized, one-way arrows stand for regression and values beside these arrows are standard regression coefficients, both-way arrows stand for correlativity and values beside these arrows are standard correlation coefficients)
表 1 东北春玉米发育期日序变化
Table 1 The day of year of spring maize growth stages in Northeast China
发育期 黑龙江省 吉林省 辽宁省 东北地区 平均值 趋势变率 平均值 趋势变率 平均值 趋势变率 平均值 趋势变率 播种 127 推后 119 极显著推后 118 极显著推后 120 极显著推后 出苗 143 显著提前 138 推后 132 推后 138 推后 三叶 150 推后 145 显著推后 138 推后 144 显著推后 七叶 167 提前 161 推后 155 推后 161 推后 拔节 185 提前 185 显著推后 177 极显著推后 183 显著推后 抽雄 204 极显著推后 204 推后 201 推后 203 极显著推后 开花 209 提前 207 推后 204 推后 207 推后 吐丝 212 推后 210 推后 207 推后 210 推后 乳熟 235 显著推后 234 极显著推后 232 极显著推后 234 极显著推后 成熟 263 极显著推后 263 极显著推后 259 极显著推后 262 极显著推后 
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表 2 东北地区代表站春玉米生育期日数与各尺度气象因子的相关系数
Table 2 Spearman correlation coefficients between the number of growth stage days of spring maize and different meteorological factors at typical stations in Northeast China
站点 年平均温度 温度生长期日数 日平均温度不低于10℃活动积温 平均温度 最高温度 最低温度 富裕 0.324 0.171 0.093 -0.461 -0.406 -0.544* 安达 0.083 0.010 -0.235 -0.594* -0.349 -0.666** 佳木斯 -0.041 -0.333 -0.412 -0.772** -0.710** -0.769** 白城 0.082 0.298 -0.038 -0.445* -0.248 -0.566** 尚志 0.429 0.181 0.039 -0.644** -0.575* -0.652** 长岭 0.166 0.207 -0.259 -0.726** -0.595** -0.749** 敦化 0.333 0.187 0.205 -0.352 -0.304 -0.259 阜新 -0.521 -0.248 -0.193 -0.622 -0.506 -0.561 梅河口 0.175 -0.324 -0.295 -0.608** -0.553** -0.704** 桦甸 0.352 -0.026 0.020 -0.365* -0.223 -0.374* 沈阳 -0.058 -0.180 -0.204 -0.715** -0.584** -0.826** 集安 0.154 0.052 0.026 -0.479** -0.312 -0.630** 绥中 0.309 0.052 0.264 -0.284 -0.215 -0.401* 岫岩 0.351 0.014 0.225 -0.334 -0.182 -0.289 宽甸 -0.130 -0.014 -0.410* -0.736** -0.705** -0.715** 庄河 -0.187 -0.216 -0.294 -0.752** -0.644** -0.707** 东北地区 0.236** 0.194** 0.159** -0.226** -0.214** -0.147** 注：*表示达到0.05显著性水平，**表示达到0.01显著性水平。
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