天山北坡次季节-季节尺度降水集合预测

李海燕; 颉卫华; 吴统文; 李巧萍; 梁萧云; 姚隽琛; 刘向文; 路屹雄; 杨涛; 柳春

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20230104

天山北坡次季节-季节尺度降水集合预测

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20230104

李海燕^{1, 2},
颉卫华^3, ,,
吴统文³,
李巧萍³,
梁萧云³,
姚隽琛³,
刘向文³,
路屹雄³,
杨涛²,
柳春⁴

1.
中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所, 乌鲁木齐 830002
2.
新疆维吾尔自治区气候中心, 乌鲁木齐 830002
3.
中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心, 北京 100081
4.
安徽省气象台, 合肥 230002

资助项目:

中国沙漠气象科学研究基金项目 Sqj2017008

国家自然科学基金重点项目 42230608

安徽省自然科学基金青年项目 2008085-QD190

详细信息

通信作者:
颉卫华，邮箱：jiewh@cma.gov.cn

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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-09-04
- 修回日期: 2022-10-26
- 刊出日期: 2023-01-31

Ensemble Forecasts for Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Rainfall over the Economic Belt of the Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountains

1.
Institute of Desert Meteorology of CMA, Urumqi 830002
2.
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Climate Center, Urumqi 830002
3.
Center for Earth System Modeling and Prediction of CMA, Beijing 100081
4.
Anhui Meteorological Station, Hefei 230002

摘要

摘要: 在新疆天山大地形背景下，实现了中国气象局研发的高分辨率气候业务预测系统CMA-CPSv3（China Meteorological Administration-Climate Prediction System version 3）在天山北坡经济带的本地化应用，分别评估控制预报、传统集合平均预报以及改进后的最优概率阈值集合方法（deterministic ensemble forecast using a probabilistic threshold，DEFPT）对该区域次季节-季节降水的预测水平。评估结果表明：基于CMA-CPSv3预测系统的DEFPT方法可以提升天山北坡次季节-季节尺度1~5 mm阈值降水落区以及持续性的预测效果，优于传统集合平均预报和控制预报。从2016年7月29日—8月2日、2017年6月7—12日以及2020年7月8—12日时段发生在天山北坡的降水事件个例分析结果看，不论从降水落区、降水异常还是降水持续性，DEFPT集合预报在天山北坡西部和南部均有更好的效果，但在天山北坡东部和北部预测能力相对略低，这与该区域水汽的预报偏差增大有关。
- CMA-CPSv3;
- 次季节-季节尺度(S2S);
- 降水集合预测;
- 天山北坡经济带
Abstract: The economic belt of the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains (NSTM) has important social, economic and ecological effects in Xinjiang. Thus, it is critical to improve the prediction ability of sub-seasonal to seasonal rainfall in this region. Focusing on the large terrain of Tianshan Mountains, the global high-resolution climate prediction operational system version 3 developed by China Meteorological Administration (CMA-CPSv3) is applied. The sub-seasonal to seasonal rainfall over the NSTM is predicted by using the control run, the traditional ensemble mean, and the improved optimal deterministic ensemble forecast using a probabilistic threshold (DEFPT), respectively. The DEFPT method is not intended to predict the probability of rainfall, but to forecast the occurrence (yes or no) of rainfall event in any model grid box by judging whether it exceeds a certain probabilistic threshold, and the spatial-temporal distribution characteristic is analyzed. All the predictions are evaluated by the frequency bias, equitable threat score (ETS), Hanssen and Kuipers score (HK) and anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC). The evaluation results show that the improved DEFPT method can improve the sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions of the 1-5 mm rainfall locations and persistence over the NSTM and is superior to the traditional ensemble mean and the control run. These results also indicate that it is necessary to combine numerical model prediction with proper objective ensemble prediction method, especially in regions with large terrain background and significant climatology difference. Based upon the analyses of three rainfall events (during 29 July-2 August of 2016, 7-11 June of 2017, and 8-12 July of 2020, respectively), the DEFPT method performs better in western and southern NSTM from the perspectives of rainfall locations, anomalies and persistence. However, the prediction ability is relatively low in the eastern and northern parts of NSTM, which is possibly related to the low skill of humidity prediction from each ensemble member in corresponding regions. In addition, this method can also be used in other regions by tuning the related empirical coefficients in the formula to limit forecasting biases.
- CMA-CPSv3;
- sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S);
- ensemble rainfall prediction;
- the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains

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图 1 天山北坡经济带地理区位分布

Fig. 1 Location of the economic belt of the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains(NSTM)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 基于2006—2020年5—9月全部起报个例的新疆天山北坡1 mm阈值降水预报偏差评分标准差逐候演变

Fig. 2 Pentadly bias standard deviation for 1 mm threshold rainfall over the NSTM in Xinjiang calculated based on all cases initialized from May to Sep in 2006-2020

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 基于2006—2020年5—9月全部起报个例的新疆天山北坡1 mm以上降水最优概率阈值分布逐候演变

Fig. 3 Pentadly optimal probabilistic threshold for 1 mm threshold rainfall over the NSTM in Xinjiang calculated based on all cases initialized from May to Sep in 2006-2020

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图 4 CMA-CPSv3预测系统在新疆天山北坡2006—2020年5—9月全部个例的逐候累积降水不同阈值不同预报时效技巧评分

(黑色虚线为偏差评分等于1.0标准线)

Fig. 4 Bias, ETS and HK scores for pentadly rainfall at 1-20 mm thresholds at different lead times over the NSTM from all cases in Xinjiang from May to Sep in 2006-2020 predicted by CMA-CPSv3

(the black dashed line denotes the standard line(equal to 1.0))

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图 5 CMA-CPSv3预测系统在新疆天山北坡2006—2020年5—9月全部个例的日降水发生频次与观测之间的不同预报时效异常相关系数

(黑色虚线表示0.05显著性水平)

Fig. 5 Anomaly correlations of daily rainfall event frequencies in each pentad and ten days at different lead times over the NSTM in Xinjiang from all cases from May to Sep in 2006-2020 between CMA-CPSv3 and observation

(the black dashed line denotes the level of 0.05)

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图 6 CMA-CPSv3预测系统预报2016年7月29日—8月2日的候累积降水分布

(日期标记为起报时间)
(a)观测，(b)提前0 d控制预报，(c)提前0 d集合平均预报，(d)提前0 d DEFPT集合预报, (e)提前1周控制预报，(f)提前1周集合平均预报，(g)提前1周DEFPT集合预报, (h)提前2周控制预报，(i)提前2周集合平均预报，(j)提前2周DEFPT集合预报

Fig. 6 Pentadly rainfall including the period from 29 Jul to 2 Aug in 2016 predicted by CMA-CPSv3

(the date of model initialized is marked in each figure)
(a)observations, (b)CTL run at the lead of 0 day, (c)ensemble mean at the lead of 0 day, (d)DEFPT result at the lead of 0 day (e)CTL run at the lead of one week, (f)ensemble mean at the lead of one week, (g)DEFPT result at the lead of one week, (h)CTL run at the lead of two weeks, (i)ensemble mean at the lead of two weeks, (j)DEFPT result at the lead of two weeks

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图 7 同图 6，但是为候累积5 mm阈值降水距平百分率分布

Fig. 7 The same as in Fig. 6, but for anomalous percentage of pentadly rainfall with threshold of 5 mm

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图 8 同图 6，但为候内1 mm阈值降水频次分布

Fig. 8 The same as in Fig. 6, but for frequency of daily rainfall in each pentad

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图 9 同图 6，但为2017年6月7—11日候累积降水分布

Fig. 9 The same as in Fig. 6, but for pentadly rainfall from 7 Jun to 11 Jun in 2017

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 10 同图 6，但为2020年7月8—12日候累积降水分布

Fig. 10 The same as in Fig. 6, but for pentadly rainfall from 8 Jul to 12 Jul in 2020

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 11 2006—2020年5—9月全部个例的新疆天山北坡经济带预测与观测的900 hPa第4~6候水汽异常相关系数

Fig. 11 Correlation between observation and prediction from all cases for the 4th-6th pentad humidity over the NSTM in Xinjiang from May to Sep in 2006-2020

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 2006—2020年5—9月不同阈值降水预报偏差合理范围的经验系数α和β

Table 1 Empirical coefficients α and β for reasonable forecasting biases of rainfall events with different thresholds from May to Sep in 2006-2020

降水阈值/mm	5月		6月		7月		8月		9月
降水阈值/mm	α	β	α	β	α	β	α	β	α	β
1	1.0	4.0	1.5	4.0	1.5	4.0	1.0	3.0	1.0	2.5
2	3.0	5.0	3.5	5.0	3.0	5.0	2.0	5.0	2.0	5.0
3	3.5	6.0	4.0	6.0	4.0	7.0	3.0	6.0	4.0	6.0
4	3.5	6.0	4.0	6.0	4.0	8.0	4.0	8.0	5.0	8.0
5	3.5	6.0	4.5	7.0	4.5	8.5	4.5	8.5	5.0	8.5

下载: 导出CSV

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天山北坡次季节-季节尺度降水集合预测

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20230104

通信作者:
颉卫华，邮箱：jiewh@cma.gov.cn

计量

Ensemble Forecasts for Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Rainfall over the Economic Belt of the Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountains

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留言板

天山北坡次季节-季节尺度降水集合预测

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20230104

通信作者: 颉卫华，邮箱：jiewh@cma.gov.cn

计量

出版历程

Ensemble Forecasts for Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Rainfall over the Economic Belt of the Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountains

计量

出版历程

目录

通信作者:
颉卫华，邮箱：jiewh@cma.gov.cn